Toward determining the number of observable supermassive black hole shadows

Abstract

We present estimates for the number of shadow-resolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems that can be detected using radio interferometers, as a function of angular resolution, flux density sensitivity, and observing frequency. Accounting for the distribution of SMBHs across mass, redshift, and accretion rate, we use a new semi-analytic spectral energy distribution model to derive the number of SMBHs with detectable and optically thin horizon-scale emission. We demonstrate that (sub)millimeter interferometric observations with $\sim 0.1$ $\mu$as resolution and $\sim 1$ $\mu$Jy sensitivity could access $>10^6$ SMBH shadows. We then further decompose the shadow source counts into the number of black holes for which we could expect to observe the first- and second-order lensed photon rings. Accessing the bulk population of first-order photon rings requires $\lesssim 2$ $\mu$as resolution and $\lesssim 0.5$ mJy sensitivity, while doing the same for second-order photon rings requires $\lesssim 0.1$ $\mu$as resolution and $\lesssim 5$ $\mu$Jy sensitivity. Our model predicts that with modest improvements to sensitivity, as many as $\sim$5 additional horizon-resolved sources should become accessible to the current Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), while a next-generation EHT observing at 345 GHz should have access to $\sim$3 times as many sources. More generally, our results can help guide enhancements of current arrays and specifications for future interferometric experiments that aim to spatially resolve a large population of SMBH shadows or higher-order photon rings.

37 pages, 18 figures, published in ApJ

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