CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r>0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r<0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.

arXiv comment24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.04473

References in corpus (75)

• Planck 2013 results. XVI. Cosmological parameters
• Planck 2018 results. X. Constraints on inflation
• The Simons Observatory: Science goals and forecasts
• Planck 2018 results. V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods
• Weak Gravitational Lensing of the CMB
• A Joint Analysis of BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck Data
• Signature of Gravity Waves in Polarization of the Microwave Background
• Karhunen-Loeve eigenvalue problems in cosmology: how should we tackle large data sets?
• A Probe of Primordial Gravity Waves and Vorticity
• Planck 2015 results. XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters
• BICEP2 / Keck Array VI: Improved Constraints On Cosmology and Foregrounds When Adding 95 GHz Data From Keck Array
• The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR4 Maps and Cosmological Parameters
• A high resolution foreground cleaned CMB map from WMAP
• Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood
• Planck 2018 results. VII. Isotropy and Statistics of the CMB
• BICEP2 / Keck Array x: Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck, WMAP, and New BICEP2/Keck Observations through the 2015 Season
• A CMB Polarization Primer
• CMB-S4 Science Case, Reference Design, and Project Plan
• The Quest for B Modes from Inflationary Gravitational Waves
• A method for subtracting foregrounds from multi-frequency CMB sky maps
• A limit on the detectability of the energy scale of inflation
• Gravitational lensing as a contaminant of the gravity wave signal in CMB
• The Python Sky Model: software for simulating the Galactic microwave sky
• The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Spectra and Parameters
• Planck 2018 results. XI. Polarized dust foregrounds
• Measurements of the Temperature and E-Mode Polarization of the CMB from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data
• Benchmark Parameters for CMB Polarization Experiments
• Planck intermediate results. XXII. Frequency dependence of thermal emission from Galactic dust in intensity and polarization
• Planck 2013 results. IX. HFI spectral response
• Delensing CMB Polarization with External Datasets
• The POLARBEAR-2 and the Simons Array Experiment
• E/B decomposition of finite pixelized CMB maps
• Robust forecasts on fundamental physics from the foreground-obscured, gravitationally-lensed CMB polarization
• SPTpol: an instrument for CMB polarization measurements with the South Pole Telescope
• Measurements of Sub-degree B-mode Polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background from 100 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data
• CMB Polarization Systematics Due to Beam Asymmetry: Impact on Inflationary Science
• A Guide to Designing Future Ground-based CMB Experiments
• Maximum a posteriori CMB lensing reconstruction
• Measurements of B-mode Polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data
• The S-PASS view of polarized Galactic Synchrotron at 2.3 GHz as a contaminant to CMB observations
• Second Season QUIET Observations: Measurements of the CMB Polarization Power Spectrum at 95 GHz
• The POLARBEAR Experiment
• Systematic errors in cosmic microwave background polarization measurements
• SPIDER: Probing the Early Universe with a Suborbital Polarimeter
• Using Cosmology to Establish the Quantization of Gravity
• A general solution to the E-B mixing problem
• EBEX: A balloon-borne CMB polarization experiment
• The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor
• The structure and statistics of interstellar turbulence
• A Measurement of the Degree Scale CMB B-mode Angular Power Spectrum with POLARBEAR
• Internal delensing of Planck CMB temperature and polarization
• Lower bias, lower noise CMB lensing with foreground-hardened estimators
• Spatial variations in the spectral index of polarized synchrotron emission in the 9 yr WMAP sky maps
• The Robinson Gravitational Wave Background Telescope (BICEP): a bolometric large angular scale CMB polarimeter
• Planck intermediate results. L. Evidence for spatial variation of the polarized thermal dust spectral energy distribution and implications for CMB $B$-mode analysis
• BICEP2 III: Instrumental Systematics
• Bayesian delensing delight: sampling-based inference of the primordial CMB and gravitational lensing
• CMB lensing reconstruction biases in cross-correlation with large-scale structure probes
• Polarized galactic synchrotron and dust emission and their correlation
• SPIDER: CMB polarimetry from the edge of space
• Results from the Atacama B-mode Search (ABS) Experiment
• Systematic effects from an ambient-temperature, continuously-rotating half-wave plate
• Year two instrument status of the SPT-3G cosmic microwave background receiver
• Modelling and simulation of large-scale polarized dust emission over the southern Galactic cap using the GASS HI data
• Impact of Polarized Galactic Foreground Emission on CMB Lensing Reconstruction and Delensing of B-Modes
• Fractional Polarisation of Extragalactic Sources in the 500-square-degree SPTpol Survey
• 2017 upgrade and performance of BICEP3: a 95GHz refracting telescope for degree-scale CMB polarization
• BICEP2 / Keck Array VII: Matrix based E/B Separation applied to BICEP2 and the Keck Array
• No evidence for dust B-mode decorrelation in Planck data
• The EBEX Balloon Borne Experiment - Detectors and Readout
• BICEP2 / Keck Array XI: Beam Characterization and Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage in the BK15 Dataset
• Optimal constraints on primordial gravitational waves from the lensed CMB
• Optimization Study for the Experimental Configuration of CMB-S4
• Full-sky beam convolution for cosmic microwave background applications
• Removing beam asymmetry bias in precision CMB temperature and polarisation experiments

Cited by in corpus (154)

• Challenges for $\Lambda$CDM: An update
• Concepts and status of Chinese space gravitational wave detection projects
• Detecting High-Frequency Gravitational Waves with Microwave Cavities
• CCAT-prime Collaboration: Science Goals and Forecasts with Prime-Cam on the Fred Young Submillimeter Telescope
• MAGO2.0: Electromagnetic Cavities as Mechanical Bars for Gravitational Waves
• The Benefits of CMB Delensing
• Towards hybrid inflation with $n_s=1$ in light of Hubble tension and primordial gravitational waves
• QUIJOTE scientific results -- IV. A northern sky survey in intensity and polarization at 10-20GHz with the Multi-Frequency Instrument
• Is cosmic birefringence due to dark energy or dark matter? A tomographic approach
• A Demonstration of Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves with Delensing
• Broken blue-tilted inflationary gravitational waves: a joint analysis of NANOGrav 15-year and BICEP/Keck 2018 data
• A minimal power-spectrum-based moment expansion for CMB B-mode searches
• Testing the Early Universe with Anisotropies of the Gravitational Wave Background
• Inflaton phenomenology via reheating in light of primordial gravitational waves and the latest BICEP/$Keck$ data
• CMB-S4: Iterative Internal Delensing and $r$ Constraints
• Limits on the cosmic neutrino background
• Gravitational waves induced by scalar-tensor mixing
• Performance forecasts for the primordial gravitational wave detection pipelines for AliCPT-1
• Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies
• Enhancing gravitational wave anisotropies with peaked scalar sources
• Possible consistent model of parity violations in the symmetric teleparallel gravity
• Cavity Detection of Gravitational Waves: Where Do We Stand?
• On UV-completion of Palatini-Higgs inflation
• Quintessential $\alpha$-attractor inflation: forecasts for Stage IV galaxy surveys
• Missing one-loop contributions in secondary gravitational waves
• Minimal $k$-inflation in light of the conformal metric-affine geometry
• The Simons Observatory: Galactic Science Goals and Forecasts
• $B$-mode forecast of CMB-Bh$\overline{a}$rat
• The Simons Observatory: pipeline comparison and validation for large-scale B-modes
• Foreground Separation and Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves with the PICO Space Mission
• Measuring the Inflaton Coupling in the CMB
• Probing Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background from $SU(5)\times U(1{)}_{\chi }$ Strings in Light of NANOGrav 15-Year Data
• Probing neutrino interactions and dark radiation with gravitational waves
• Full-sky Models of Galactic Microwave Emission and Polarization at Sub-arcminute Scales for the Python Sky Model
• Simulated catalogs and maps of radio galaxies at millimeter wavelengths in Websky
• In-flight polarization angle calibration for LiteBIRD: blind challenge and cosmological implications
• Cosmic birefringence tomography with polarized Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect
• LiteBIRD Science Goals and Forecasts: Improving Sensitivity to Inflationary Gravitational Waves with Multitracer Delensing
• BICEP / Keck XVI: Characterizing Dust Polarization through Correlations with Neutral Hydrogen
• Reconstructing Patchy Reionization with Deep Learning
• How informative are summaries of the cosmic 21-cm signal?
• Warm Inflation with the Standard Model
• Constraining constant and tomographic coupled dark energy with low-redshift and high-redshift probes
• The impact of extragalactic foregrounds on internal delensing of CMB B-mode polarization
• Nonperturbative structure in coupled axion sectors and implications for direct detection
• Instrumental systematics biases in CMB lensing reconstruction: a simulation-based assessment
• Current constraints on cosmological scenarios with very low reheating temperatures
• Primordial power spectrum at N3LO in effective theories of inflation
• LiteBIRD and CMB-S4 Sensitivities to Reheating in Plateau Models of Inflation
• Experimental targets for dark photon dark matter
• Redshift-space fluctuations in stochastic gravitational wave background
• Testing scale-invariant inflation against cosmological data
• Cosmology from the kinetic polarized Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect
• A numerical study of observational systematic errors in lensing analysis of CMB polarization
• Chasing cosmic inflation: constraints for inflationary models and reheating insights
• Primordial Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background Anisotropies: in-in Formalization and Applications
• Constraining Cosmic Inflation with Observations: Prospects for 2030
• A hybrid map-$C_{\ell }$ component separation method for primordial CMB $B$-mode searches
• Efficient ILC analysis on polarization maps after EB leakage correction
• Reconstructing Cosmic Polarization Rotation with ResUNet-CMB
• Third-order corrections to the slow-roll expansion: calculation and constraints with Planck, ACT, SPT, and BICEP/Keck
• Irregular universe in the Nieh-Yan modified teleparallel gravity
• Cornering Extended Starobinsky Inflation with CMB and SKA
• Probing parity-odd bispectra with anisotropies of GW $V$ modes
• Detectability of the cross-correlation between CMB lensing and stochastic GW background from compact object mergers
• Probing early structure and model-independent neutrino mass with high-redshift CMB lensing mass maps
• Testing for spectral index variations in polarised CMB foregrounds
• Superconducting Levitated Detector of Gravitational Waves
• QUIJOTE Scientific Results -- VII. Galactic AME sources in the QUIJOTE-MFI Northern Hemisphere Wide-Survey
• Characterizing line-of-sight variability of polarized dust emission with future CMB experiments
• Delensing of Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization with machine learning
• Connecting Cosmic Inflation to Particle Physics with LiteBIRD, CMB-S4, EUCLID and SKA
• Dark Matter Production in Weyl $R^2$ Inflation
• CMB imprints of high scale non-thermal leptogenesis
• Starobinsky inflation beyond the leading order
• B-mode constraints from Planck low multipole polarisation data
• Exact CMB B-mode power spectrum from anisotropic cosmic birefringence
• On Sphaleron Heating in the Presence of Fermions
• $\mu$-Hybrid Inflation and Metastable Cosmic Strings in $\mathbf{SU}(3{)}_{\mathbf{c}}\times \mathbf{SU}(2{)}_{\mathbf{L}}\times \mathbf{SU}(2{)}_{\mathbf{R}}\times \mathbf{U}(1{)}_{\mathbf{B}-\mathbf{L}}$
• The effect of quantum decoherence on inflationary gravitational waves
• Improving Constraints on Inflation with CMB Delensing
• Gravitational Waves from Preheating in Inflation with Weyl Symmetry
• Foreground removal with ILC methods for AliCPT-1
• Joint 21-cm and CMB Forecasts for Constraining Self-Interacting Massive Neutrinos
• An Analytical Study of the Primordial Gravitational-Wave-Induced Contribution to the Large-Scale Structure of the Universe
• A framework to mitigate patchy reionization contamination on the primordial gravitational wave signal
• Measurement and Modeling of Polarized Atmosphere at the South Pole with SPT-3G
• Tomographic constraint on anisotropic cosmic birefringence
• Thermal Gravitons from Warm Inflation
• Gravitational wave polarizations in nonminimally coupled gravity
• Cosmic superstrings in large volume compactifications: PTAs, LISA and time-varying tension
• Constraining Cosmology With the CMB $\times$ LIM-Nulling Convergence
• A New Probe of the High-z BAO scale: BAO tomography With CMB $\times$ LIM-Nulling Convergence
• Spectral Distortions from Axion Monodromy Inflation
• Identifying frequency decorrelated dust residuals in B-mode maps by exploiting the spectral capability of bolometric interferometry
• Supersymmetric Hybrid Inflation in Light of CMB Experiments and Swampland Conjectures
• New probe of inflationary gravitational waves: cross-correlations of lensed primary CMB B-modes with large-scale structure
• PROTOCALC, A W-band polarized calibrator for CMB Telescopes: application to Simons Observatory and CLASS
• Cosmological probes of helium reionization
• Dark Energy with a Triplet of Classical U(1) Fields
• The Power of the Cosmic Web
• Conversations in the dark: cross-correlating birefringence and LSS to constrain axions
• Inflationary power spectrum from the Lanczos algorithm
• Constraining primordial tensor features with the anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background
• QUIJOTE scientific results -- XVIII. New constraints on the polarization of the Anomalous Microwave Emission in bright Galactic regions: $\rho$\,Ophiuchi, Perseus and W43
• Analytic results in aligned axion inflation
• Effects of boosting on extragalactic components: methods and statistical studies
• Unraveling the Hubble tension with warm inflation
• The Simons Observatory: Validation of reconstructed power spectra from simulated filtered maps for the Small Aperture Telescope survey
• Minimal Magnetogenesis: The Role of Inflationary Perturbations and ALPs, and Its Gravitational Wave Signatures
• Primordial Gravitational Waves in Quadratic Gravity
• Smooth $\mu$-Hybrid and Non-Minimal Higgs Inflation in $SU(4{)}_C\times SU(2{)}_L\times SU(2{)}_R$ With Observable Gravitational Waves
• M-theory, Black Holes and Cosmology
• A narrow-band parameterization for the stochastic gravitational wave background
• Stage IV CMB forecasts for warm inflation
• The LSPE-Strip Pointing Reconstruction and Star Tracker
• Sidelobe Modeling and Mitigation for a Three Mirror Anastigmat Cosmic Microwave Background Telescope
• Inflationary constraints on the moduli-dependent species scale in modular invariant theories
• Curvature perturbations from kinetic preheating after $\alpha$-attractor inflation
• Non-Gaussianity of Tensor Induced Density Perturbations
• Forecasts of effects of beam systematics and deprojection on the third-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment
• Results and forecasts on cosmic inflation from weak lensing
• Post-inflationary production of particle Dark Matter: Hilltop and Coleman-Weinberg inflation
• The fate of Quasi-Exponential inflation in the light of ACT-DR6
• Implications of scattering for CMB foreground emission modelling
• Revisiting the Chern-Simons interaction during inflation with a non-canonical pseudo-scalar
• The Precursor Small Aperture Telescope (PreSAT) CMB polarimeter
• Microwave transitions in atomic sodium: Radiometry and polarimetry using the sodium layer
• High-Efficiency and Low-Noise Detectors for the Upgraded CLASS 90 GHz Focal Plane
• How light can ALP dark matter be?
• Constraints on Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence from CMB B-mode Polarization
• ACT DR6 Insights on the Inflationary Attractor models and Reheating
• Requirements on bandpass resolution and measurement precision for LiteBIRD
• Delensing CMB B-modes using galaxy surveys: the effect of galaxy bias and matter clustering non-linearities
• Cosmological Frequency Combs
• Bias in the tensor-to-scalar ratio from self-interacting dark radiation
• Observational Constraints on Asymptotic Safety Inflation in Gravity Rainbow
• Unbiased Primordial Gravitational Wave Inference from the CMB with SMICA
• Signatures of Primordial Gravitational Waves on the Large-Scale Structure of the Universe
• Primordial gravitational waves: Model effects on time evolution and spectrum
• Probing CMB Polarization Gaussianity with the Statistics of Unpolarized Points: Non-Gaussianity of Planck Data and Prospects for Future B-Mode Measurements
• The Hydrostatic Mass Bias and the ${\sigma }_8$ Tension: A Multi-Probe Forecast for Stage-IV/V Surveys
• Higher-order gravity models: corrections up to cubic curvature invariants and inflation
• Feedback-Controlled Beam Pattern Measurement Method Using a Power-Variable Calibration Source for Cosmic Microwave Background Telescopes
• Confronting Mukhanov Parametrization of Inflationary Equation-of-State with ACT-DR6
• Extending the micro-Hertz detection horizons via orbital resonance effect for geocentric gravitational wave antennas
• AliCPT Sensitivity to Cosmic Reheating
• Gravitational Wave Mountains: current-carrying domain walls
• Impact of particle production during inflation on the CMB detection
• Returning Back to Mukhanov Parametrization of Inflationary Equation of State
• Quantification of propagation modes in an astronomical instrument from its radiation pattern
• Testing magnetic interference between TES detectors and the telescope environment for future CMB satellite missions
• Forecasting ground-based sensitivity to the Rayleigh scattering of the CMB in the presence of astrophysical foregrounds
• Receiver development for BICEP Array, a next-generation CMB polarimeter at the South Pole