Prospects for gravitational-wave detection and supermassive black hole astrophysics with pulsar timing arrays

Abstract

Large-area sky surveys show that massive galaxies undergo at least one major merger in a Hubble time. Ongoing pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments are aimed at measuring the gravitational wave (GW) emission from binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at the centres of galaxy merger remnants. In this paper, using the latest observational estimates for a range of galaxy properties and scaling relations, we predict the amplitude of the GW background generated by the binary SMBH population. We also predict the numbers of individual binary SMBH GW sources. We predict the characteristic strain amplitude of the GW background to lie in the range $5.1\times 10^{-16}<A_{\mathrm{yr}}<2.4\times 10^{-15}$ at a frequency of $(1\mathrm{yr}{)}^{-1}$, with 95% confidence. Higher values within this range, which correspond to the more commonly preferred choice of galaxy merger timescale, will fall within the expected sensitivity ranges of existing PTA projects in the next few years. In contrast, we find that a PTA consisting of at least 100 pulsars observed with next-generation radio telescopes will be required to detect continuous-wave GWs from binary SMBHs. We further suggest that GW memory bursts from coalescing SMBH pairs are not viable sources for PTAs. Both the GW background and individual GW source counts are dominated by binaries formed in mergers between early-type galaxies of masses $\gtrsim 5\times 10^{10}{M}_{\odot }$ at redshifts $\lesssim 1.5$. Uncertainties in the galaxy merger timescale and the SMBH mass - galaxy bulge mass relation dominate the uncertainty in our predictions.

arXiv commentUpdated to match version accepted to MNRAS. 15 pages, 5 figures

References in corpus (73)

• Planck 2013 results. XVI. Cosmological parameters
• Simulating the joint evolution of quasars, galaxies and their large-scale distribution
• Coevolution (Or Not) of Supermassive Black Holes and Host Galaxies
• From dwarf spheroidals to cDs: Simulating the galaxy population in a LCDM cosmology
• The Evolution of the Stellar Mass Functions of Star-Forming and Quiescent Galaxies to z = 4 from the COSMOS/UltraVISTA Survey
• Observational constraints on growth of massive black holes
• The Relationship Between Stellar Light Distributions of Galaxies and their Formation Histories
• The ATLAS3D project - III. A census of the stellar angular momentum within the effective radius of early-type galaxies: unveiling the distribution of Fast and Slow Rotators
• The international pulsar timing array project: using pulsars as a gravitational wave detector
• The stochastic gravitational-wave background from massive black hole binary systems: implications for observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays
• The Parkes Pulsar Timing Array Project
• The dynamical evolution of massive black hole binaries - I. Hardening in a fixed stellar background
• The Evolution of Galaxy Structure over Cosmic Time
• The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves
• A Compact Supermassive Binary Black Hole System
• Gravitational Waves Probe the Coalescence Rate of Massive Black Hole Binaries
• Galaxy Merger Morphologies and Time-Scales from Simulations of Equal-Mass Gas-Rich Disc Mergers
• Evolution of massive binary black holes
• An expanded M_bh-sigma diagram, and a new calibration of active galactic nuclei masses
• A massive binary black-hole system in OJ287 and a test of general relativity
• Low-Frequency Gravitational Waves from Massive Black Hole Binaries: Predictions for LISA and Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Low-frequency gravitational radiation from coalescing massive black hole binaries in hierarchical cosmologies
• Galaxy Masses
• Massive Black Hole Binary Evolution
• Gravitational waves from resolvable massive black hole binary systems and observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Supermassive black hole binaries in gaseous and stellar circumnuclear discs: orbital dynamics and gas accretion
• A fitting formula for the merger timescale of galaxies in hierarchical clustering
• The Greater Impact of Mergers on the Growth of Massive Galaxies: Implications for Mass Assembly and Evolution Since z~1
• The International Pulsar Timing Array
• The Effect of Mass Ratio on the Morphology and Time-scales of Disc Galaxy Mergers
• A catalog of bulge, disk, and total stellar mass estimates for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
• The Role of Gas in the Merging of Massive Black Holes in Galactic Nuclei. I. Black Hole Merging in a Spherical Gas Cloud
• A Large Systematic Search for Recoiling and Close Supermassive Binary Black Holes
• Mergers in Lambda-CDM: Uncertainties in Theoretical Predictions and Interpretations of the Merger Rate
• The stochastic background: scaling laws and time to detection for pulsar timing arrays
• Systematic investigation of the expected gravitational wave signal from supermassive black hole binaries in the pulsar timing band
• A Candidate Sub-Parsec Supermassive Binary Black Hole System
• Limiting eccentricity of sub-parsec massive black hole binaries surrounded by self-gravitating gas discs
• A calibration of the relation between the abundance of close galaxy pairs and the rate of galaxy mergers
• Accretion-Driven Evolution of Black Holes: Eddington Ratios, Duty Cycles, and Active Galaxy Fractions
• A catalogue of 2D photometric decompositions in the SDSS-DR7 spectroscopic main galaxy sample: preferred models and systematics
• The VIMOS VLT Deep Survey :Evolution of the major merger rate since z~1 from spectroscopicaly confirmed galaxy pairs
• The Structures of Distant Galaxies - III: The Merger History of over 20,000 Massive Galaxies at z < 1.2
• Observability of Dual Active Galactic Nuclei in Merging Galaxies
• Gravitational-wave Limits from Pulsar Timing Constrain Supermassive Black Hole Evolution
• How well can we really estimate the stellar masses of galaxies from broadband photometry?
• Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): Galaxy close-pairs, mergers, and the future fate of stellar mass
• A Practical Theorem on Gravitational Wave Backgrounds
• The dominant role of mergers in the size evolution of massive early-type galaxies since z ~ 1
• The recycling of gas and metals in galaxy formation: predictions of a dynamical feedback model
• Self consistent model for the evolution of eccentric massive black hole binaries in stellar environments: implications for gravitational wave observations
• Astrophysically Motivated Bulge-Disk Decompositions of SDSS Galaxies
• Gravitational Waves from Supermassive Black Hole Coalescence in a Hierarchical Galaxy Formation Model
• The Cosmic Density of Massive Black Holes from Galaxy Velocity Dispersions
• Nonlinear gravitational-wave memory from binary black hole mergers
• The Supermassive Black Hole Mass - Spheroid Stellar Mass Relation for Sérsic and Core-Sérsic Galaxies
• An all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves in the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array data set
• Pulsars as Tools for Fundamental Physics and Astrophysics
• Galaxy Pairs in COSMOS -- Merger Rate Evolution Since z=1
• Optimal strategies for continuous gravitational wave detection in pulsar timing arrays
• Gravitational-wave memory and pulsar timing arrays
• Mergers of Unequal Mass Galaxies: Supermassive Black Hole Binary Evolution and Structure of Merger Remnants
• Insights on the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries from pulsar timing observations
• A black-hole mass measurement from molecular gas kinematics in NGC4526
• Searching for gravitational wave memory bursts with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
• Does a 'stochastic' background of gravitational waves exist in the pulsar timing band?
• Binary super-massive black hole environments diminish the gravitational-wave signal in the pulsar timing band
• Gravitational waves and stalled satellites from massive galaxy mergers at z <= 1
• A Measurement Model for Precision Pulsar Timing
• Assessing Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Gravitational Wave Bursts with Memory
• Missing black holes in brightest cluster galaxies as evidence for the occurrence of superkicks in nature
• Origin and Implications of high eccentricities in massive black hole binaries at sub-pc scales
• The Role of FAST in Pulsar Timing Arrays

Cited by in corpus (59)

• Search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
• European Pulsar Timing Array Limits On An Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background
• Gravitational waves from binary supermassive black holes missing in pulsar observations
• The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background
• The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background
• The Astrophysics of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves
• Expected properties of the first gravitational wave signal detected with pulsar timing arrays
• An all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves in the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array data set
• A study of spatial correlations in pulsar timing array data
• Searching for gravitational wave memory bursts with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
• Massive black hole merger rates: the effect of kpc separation wandering and supernova feedback
• Constraining the Orbit of Supermassive Black Hole Binary 0402+379
• Post-Newtonian evolution of massive black hole triplets in galactic nuclei -- III. A robust lower limit to the nHz stochastic background of gravitational waves
• Testing the binary hypothesis: pulsar timing constraints on supermassive black hole binary candidates
• All correlations must die: Assessing the significance of a stochastic gravitational-wave background in pulsar-timing arrays
• Constraining the Solution to the Last Parsec Problem with Pulsar Timing
• Massive black hole evolution models confronting the n-Hz amplitude of the stochastic gravitational wave background
• Towards Robust Gravitational Wave Detection with Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Efficient computation of the gravitational wave spectrum emitted by eccentric massive black hole binaries in stellar environments
• The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: Search for Non-Einsteinian Polarization Modes in theGravitational-Wave Background
• Pulsar-timing arrays, astrometry, and gravitational waves
• Detection and localization of single-source gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays
• Dynamical evolution of cosmic supermassive binary black holes and their gravitational wave radiation
• Searching for Binary Supermassive Black Holes via Variable Broad Emission Line Shifts: Low Binary Fraction
• Constraints on Black Hole/Host Galaxy Co-evolution and Binary Stalling Using Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Detection and localization of continuous gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays: the role of pulsar terms
• Pulsar timing residual induced by ultralight vector dark matter
• Astrophysical constraints on massive black hole binary evolution from Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Pulsars probe the low-frequency gravitational sky: Pulsar Timing Arrays basics and recent results
• No tension between assembly models of supermassive black hole binaries and pulsar observations
• Lighthouse in the Dust: Infrared Echoes of Periodic Emission from Massive Black Hole Binaries
• Associating Host Galaxy Candidates to Massive Black Hole Binaries resolved by Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Parsec-scale jet properties of the quasar PG 1302$-$102
• Cosmic variance in the nanohertz gravitational wave background
• Pulsar timing noise and the minimum observation time to detect gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays
• Optimizing Pulsar Timing Arrays Observations for Detection and Characterization of Low-Frequency Gravitational Wave Sources
• Pulsar Timing Perturbations from Galactic Gravitational Wave Bursts with Memory
• Pulsar timing arrays and the challenge of massive black hole binary astrophysics
• Implications of cosmologically coupled black holes for pulsar timing arrays
• Detecting nanohertz gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays
• Exploring Proxies for the Supermassive Black Hole Mass Function: Implications for Pulsar Timing Arrays
• On using inspiralling supermassive binary black holes in the PTA frequency band as standard sirens to constrain dark energy
• Beyond the Hellings-Downs curve: Non-Einsteinian gravitational waves in pulsar timing array correlations
• Supermassive Black Hole Binary Environments: Effects on the Scaling Laws and Time to Detection for the Stochastic Background
• Supermassive Binary Black Hole Evolution can be traced by a small SKA Pulsar Timing Array
• An estimate of the stochastic gravitational wave background from the MassiveBlackII simulation
• Correlations for an anisotropic polarized stochastic gravitational wave background in pulsar timing arrays
• Radio pulsars: testing gravity and detecting gravitational waves
• Discovering new forces with gravitational waves from supermassive black holes
• Review of Pulsar Timing Array for Gravitational Wave Research
• Finding binary active galactic nuclei by the centroid shift in imaging surveys
• Efficient Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
• The Abundance of X-Shaped Radio Sources: Implications for the Gravitational Wave Background
• Signatures of Massive Black Hole Merger Host Galaxies from Cosmological Simulations I: Unique Galaxy Morphologies in Imaging
• Reading signatures of supermassive binary black holes in pulsar timing array observations
• Signatures of Massive Black Hole Merger Host Galaxies from Cosmological Simulations II: Unique Stellar Kinematics in Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy
• Damping of long wavelength gravitational waves by the intergalactic medium
• Probing the mass relation between supermassive black holes and dark matter halos at high redshifts by gravitational wave experiments
• A Population Study for Searching Supermassive Binary Black Holes in Active Galactic Nuclei: Continuum Spectral Features and Periodic Variabilities