Twinkle Twinkle Little Star, Roman Sees Where You Are: Predicting Exoplanet Transit Yields in the Rosette Nebula with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

Abstract

Young stars host only a small fraction of the known exoplanet population because their photometric variability, magnetic activity, and frequent placement in dense, poorly-resolved regions hamper exoplanet detections. Yet, measuring planets at these ages is crucial since these phases are when dynamical processes that drive planetary migration are most active. We assess the expected yield of a hypothetical Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope transit survey of the Rosette Nebula, a $\sim 10$ Myr star-forming region with a dense and diverse stellar population. Using the Roman Exposure Time Calculator to quantify sensitivity to Rosette members, we establish detection thresholds for companions and evaluate yields via Monte Carlo injection-recovery simulations, accounting for nebular extinction and youth-driven stellar variability. We predict the detection of $33\pm 9$ young transiting exoplanets orbiting stellar hosts in a month-long survey, and $29\pm 8$ in a two-week survey. The extended baseline primarily improves sensitivity to longer-period planets orbiting FGK stars, while most M dwarf detections are well-sampled within two weeks. Irrespective of the temporal baseline, transit detections are dominated by of 1-2 $R_{\oplus }$ super-Earths and sub-Neptunes with $P\lesssim 8$ days. Such a sample would substantially expand the census of only three detected transiting planets younger than 20 Myr around stars less massive than the Sun, probing an age regime in which planetary radii remain inflated, the stability of close-in orbits is uncertain, and planetary migration may still be ongoing. This survey offers a path to constrain early planetary evolution and establish prime follow-up targets for JWST, Rubin, and the Habitable Worlds Observatory.

arXiv comment22 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal

References in corpus (107)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Array Programming with NumPy
• Maps of Dust IR Emission for Use in Estimation of Reddening and CMBR Foregrounds
• Astropy: A Community Python Package for Astronomy
• Measuring Reddening with SDSS Stellar Spectra and Recalibrating SFD
• The Gaia mission
• The Astropy Project: Sustaining and Growing a Community-oriented Open-source Project and the Latest Major Release (v5.0) of the Core Package
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA)
• PARSEC: stellar tracks and isochrones with the PAdova and TRieste Stellar Evolution Code
• Gaia Data Release 3: Summary of the content and survey properties
• The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Giant Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars
• Correcting for the Effects of Interstellar Extinction
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions
• MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). I: Solar-Scaled Models
• Intrinsic Colors, Temperatures, and Bolometric Corrections of Pre-Main Sequence Stars
• MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) 0: Methods for the construction of stellar isochrones
• A Survey of Stellar Families: Multiplicity of Solar-Type Stars
• Habitable Zones Around Main-Sequence Stars: New Estimates
• Evolutionary models for cool brown dwarfs and extrasolar giant planets. The case of HD 20945
• New evolutionary models for pre-main sequence and main sequence low-mass stars down to the hydrogen-burning limit
• Stellar Multiplicity
• The NextGen Model Atmosphere grid for $3000\le \Teff \le 10000\K$
• Planet Occurrence within 0.25 AU of Solar-type Stars from Kepler
• batman: BAsic Transit Model cAlculatioN in Python
• Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data
• Characteristics of planetary candidates observed by Kepler, II: Analysis of the first four months of data
• Planetary Radii across Five Orders of Magnitude in Mass and Stellar Insolation: Application to Transits
• A box-fitting algorithm in the search for periodic transits
• astroquery: An Astronomical Web-Querying Package in Python
• The UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey ZYJHK Photometric System: Passbands and Synthetic Colours
• Architecture of Kepler's Multi-transiting Systems: II. New investigations with twice as many candidates
• The Evolution of L and T Dwarfs in Color-Magnitude Diagrams
• A Giant Planet Candidate near a Young Brown Dwarf
• Improving PARSEC models for very low mass stars
• Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds
• Kepler Eclipsing Binary Stars. I. Catalog and Principal Characterization of 1879 Eclipsing Binaries in the First Data Release
• Planet formation around stars of various masses: The snow line and the frequency of giant planets
• Core-Accretion Model Predicts Few Jovian-Mass Planets Orbiting Red Dwarfs
• CSI 2264: Simultaneous optical and infrared light curves of young disk-bearing stars in NGC 2264 with CoRoT and Spitzer-- evidence for multiple origins of variability
• Toward a Deterministic Model of Planetary Formation V. Accumulation Near the Ice Line
• Spectral and Photometric Diagnostics of Giant Planet Formation Scenarios
• Imaging Extrasolar Giant Planets
• Terrestrial Planet Occurrence Rates for the Kepler GK Dwarf Sample
• The Kepler Catalog of Stellar Flares
• Characterization of exoplanets from their formation I: Models of combined planet formation and evolution
• Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRSpec PRISM
• Exoplanet Biosignatures: Understanding Oxygen as a Biosignature in the Context of Its Environment
• The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Spectrographs
• A stellar-mass-dependent drop in planet occurrence rates
• Atmospheric Escape and the Evolution of Close-in Exoplanets
• The Eighteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys: Targeting and First Spectra from SDSS-V
• A Low-Mass Planet with a Possible Sub-Stellar-Mass Host in Microlensing Event MOA-2007-BLG-192
• Parallel Implementation of the PHOENIX Generalized Stellar Atmosphere Program
• A Study of the Shortest-Period Planets Found With Kepler
• Pre-main-sequence isochrones -- II. Revising star and planet formation timescales
• Kepler Data Validation II -- Transit Model Fitting and Multiple-Planet Search
• Transit Least Squares: Optimized transit detection algorithm to search for periodic transits of small planets
• Architecture of Planetary Systems Based on Kepler Data: Number of Planets and Coplanarity
• Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRISS
• Gaia Data Release 3: Astrophysical parameters inference system (Apsis) I -- methods and content overview
• Occurrence Rates of Planets orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2 and Bayesian Inference
• Transit Timing Observations from Kepler. IX. Catalog of the Full Long-Cadence Data Set
• A Neptune-sized transiting planet closely orbiting a 5-10-million-year-old star
• Kepler Planet Occurrence Rates for Mid-Type M Dwarfs as a Function of Spectral Type
• The Spatial Structure of Young Stellar Clusters. I. Subclusters
• Four newborn planets transiting the young solar analog V1298 Tau
• Zodiacal Exoplanets in Time (ZEIT) IV: seven transiting planets in the Praesepe cluster
• Hot super-Earths and giant planet cores from different migration histories
• Young "Dipper" Stars in Upper Sco and $\rho$ Oph Observed by K2
• Pandeia: A Multi-mission Exposure Time Calculator for JWST and WFIRST
• Older and Colder: The impact of starspots on pre-main sequence stellar evolution
• The potential for Earth-mass planet formation around brown dwarfs
• The many-faceted light curves of young disk-bearing stars in Upper Sco and $\rho$ Oph observed by $K2$ Campaign 2
• Occurrence Rates of Planets Orbiting M Stars: Applying ABC to Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and 2MASS Data
• The population of long-period transiting exoplanets
• Zodiacal Exoplanets in Time (ZEIT) VIII: A Two Planet System in Praesepe from K2 Campaign 16
• TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME) VI: an 11 Myr giant planet transiting a very low-mass star in Lower Centaurus Crux
• Microlensing Discovery of a Tight, Low Mass-ratio Planetary-mass Object around an Old, Field Brown Dwarf
• Planet Hunters. VIII. Characterization of 41 Long-Period Exoplanet Candidates from Kepler Archival Data
• OGLE-2017-BLG-1522: A giant planet around a brown dwarf located in the Galactic bulge
• TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME) V: A Sub-Neptune Transiting a Young Star in a Newly Discovered 250 Myr Association
• Single Transit Candidates from K2: Detection and Period Estimation
• The Spatial Structure of Young Stellar Clusters. II. Total Young Stellar Populations
• Using rotation rates to probe age spreads in the Orion Nebula Cluster
• K2-137 b: an Earth-sized planet in a 4.3-hour orbit around an M-dwarf
• The impact of correlated noise on SuperWASP detection rates for transiting extra-solar planets
• The TESS-Keck Survey. VIII. Confirmation of a Transiting Giant Planet on an Eccentric 261 day Orbit with the Automated Planet Finder Telescope
• Looking deep into the Rosette Nebula's heart: the (sub)stellar content of the massive young cluster NGC 2244
• Spectral classification of the brightest objects in the galactic star forming region W40
• Tidal disruption of satellites and formation of narrow rings
• A giant planet transiting a 3-Myr protostar with a misaligned disk
• Multicolor Variability of Young Stars in the Lagoon Nebula: Driving Causes and Intrinsic Timescales
• Young stellar clusters in the Rosette molecular cloud. Arguments against triggered star formation
• Stellar population of the Rosette Nebula and NGC 2244: application of the probabilistic random forest
• Probing the anomalous extinction of four young star clusters: the use of colour-excess, main sequence fitting and fractal analysis
• A kinematic perspective on the formation process of the stellar groups in the Rosette Nebula
• The TEMPO Survey I: Predicting Yields of the Transiting Exosatellites, Moons, and Planets from a 30-day Survey of Orion with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope
• Spectroscopic substellar initial mass function of NGC 2244
• Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey: III. Recovery and Confirmation of a Temperate, Mildly Eccentric, Single-Transit Jupiter Orbiting TOI-2010
• Deep Near-Infrared Survey Toward the W40 and Serpens South Region in Aquila Rift: A Comprehensive Catalog of Young Stellar Objects
• The HATNet and HATSouth Exoplanet Surveys
• Measuring the Temperature of Starspots from Multi-Filter Photometry
• Comparing Approximate Bayesian Computation with the Poisson-Likelihood Method for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates
• TESS Discovery of Twin Planets near 2:1 Resonance around Early M-Dwarf TOI 4342
• On the diversification and dissipation of protoplanetary disks
• Sensitivity to Sub-Io-sized Exosatellite Transits in the MIRI LRS Lightcurve of the Nearest Substellar Worlds