Comparing Approximate Bayesian Computation with the Poisson-Likelihood Method for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates

Abstract

We present Kepler exoplanet occurrence rates inferred with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). By using the same planet catalogue, stellar sample, and characterization of completeness and reliability as Bryson et al. (2020), we are able to provide the first direct comparison of results from ABC to those derived with the popular Poisson-likelihood method. For planets with orbital periods between 50 and 400 days and radii between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus }$, we find an integrated occurrence rate $F_0=0.596_{-0.099}^{+0.092}$ planets per GK dwarf star. After correcting for reliability against astrophysical false positives and false alarms, we find $F_0=0.421_{-0.072}^{+0.086}$. Our findings agree within 1$\sigma$ of Bryson et al. (2020), indicating that the results are robust and not method-dependent.

3 pages, 1 figure, published in RNAAS

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• Reliability Correction is Key for Robust Kepler Occurrence Rates
• Combining Transit and RV: A Synthesized Population Model
• Exoplanet Occurrence Rate with Age for FGK Stars in Kepler
• Twinkle Twinkle Little Star, Roman Sees Where You Are: Predicting Exoplanet Transit Yields in the Rosette Nebula with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope