Stability Constrained Characterization of Multiplanet Systems

Abstract

Many discovered multiplanet systems are tightly packed. This implies that wide parameter ranges in masses and orbital elements can be dynamically unstable and ruled out. We present a case study of Kepler-23, a compact three-planet system where constraints from stability, transit timing variations (TTVs), and transit durations can be directly compared. We find that in this tightly packed system, stability can place upper limits on the masses and orbital eccentricities of the bodies that are comparable to or tighter than current state of the art methods. Specifically, stability places 68% upper limits on the orbital eccentricities of 0.09, 0.04, and 0.05 for planets $b$, $c$ and $d$, respectively. These constraints correspond to radial velocity signals $\lesssim 20$ cm/s, are significantly tighter to those from transit durations, and comparable to those from TTVs. Stability also yields 68% upper limits on the masses of planets $b$, $c$ and $d$ of 2.2, 16.1, and 5.8 $M_{\oplus }$, respectively, which were competitive with TTV constraints for the inner and outer planets. Performing this stability constrained characterization is computationally expensive with N-body integrations. We show that SPOCK, the Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier, is able to faithfully approximate the N-body results over 4000 times faster. We argue that such stability constrained characterization of compact systems is a challenging "needle-in-a-haystack" problem (requiring removal of 2500 unstable configurations for every stable one for our adopted priors) and we offer several practical recommendations for such stability analyses.

arXiv commentResponded to minor referee comments. Repository with notebooks to reproduce figures / for analysis of new systems at https://github.com/dtamayo/Stability-Priors

References in corpus (90)

• XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System
• Array Programming with NumPy
• emcee: The MCMC Hammer
• Direct Imaging of Multiple Planets Orbiting the Star HR 8799
• Seven temperate terrestrial planets around the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1
• REBOUND: An open-source multi-purpose N-body code for collisional dynamics
• Characteristics of planetary candidates observed by Kepler, II: Analysis of the first four months of data
• Planetary Radii across Five Orders of Magnitude in Mass and Stellar Insolation: Application to Transits
• Dynamical Outcomes of Planet-Planet Scattering
• DHP Framework: Digital Health Passports Using Blockchain -- Use case on international tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic
• On detecting terrestrial planets with timing of giant planet transits
• Mass-Radius Relationships for Solid Exoplanets
• Architecture and Dynamics of Kepler's Candidate Multiple Transiting Planet Systems
• Architecture of Kepler's Multi-transiting Systems: II. New investigations with twice as many candidates
• Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds
• The Mass-Radius Relation for 65 Exoplanets Smaller than 4 Earth Radii
• Dynamical Origin of Extrasolar Planet Eccentricity Distribution
• Internal Structure of Massive Terrestrial Planets
• The Role of Core Mass in Controlling Evaporation: the Kepler Radius Distribution and the Kepler-36 Density Dichotomy
• WHFast: A fast and unbiased implementation of a symplectic Wisdom-Holman integrator for long term gravitational simulations
• Mass-Radius Relation for Rocky Planets based on PREM
• Breaking the Chains: Hot Super-Earth systems from migration and disruption of compact resonant chains
• Extracting Planet Mass and Eccentricity From TTV data
• Fundamental Properties of Kepler Planet-Candidate Host Stars using Asteroseismology
• The California-Kepler Survey V. Peas in a Pod: Planets in a Kepler Multi-planet System are Similar in Size and Regularly Spaced
• Planet Formation by Coagulation: A Focus on Uranus and Neptune
• Data analysis recipes: Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
• The Mass of KOI-94d and a Relation for Planet Radius, Mass, and Incident Flux
• Eccentricity from transit photometry: small planets in Kepler multi-planet systems have low eccentricities
• Migration then assembly: Formation of Neptune mass planets inside 1 AU
• Formation and Structure of Low Density Exo-Neptunes
• Formation of planetary systems by pebble accretion and migration: How the radial pebble flux determines a terrestrial-planet or super-Earth growth mode
• Testing In Situ Assembly with the Kepler Planet Candidate Sample
• Probabilistic Mass-Radius Relationship for Sub-Neptune-Sized Planets
• Densities and Eccentricities of 139 Kepler Planets from Transit Time Variations
• Exoplanet Orbital Eccentricities Derived From LAMOST-Kepler Analysis
• Architecture of Planetary Systems Based on Kepler Data: Number of Planets and Coplanarity
• Density and Eccentricity of Kepler Planets
• A resonant chain of four transiting, sub-Neptune planets
• Kepler Planet Masses and Eccentricities from TTV Analysis
• First order resonance overlap and the stability of close two planet systems
• Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: VII. Confirmation of 27 planets in 13 multiplanet systems via Transit Timing Variations and orbital stability
• Post-Oligarchic Evolution of Protoplanetary Embryos and the Stability of Planetary Systems
• On the Eccentricity Distribution of Exoplanets from Radial Velocity Surveys
• Kepler Multi-Planet Systems Exhibit Unexpected Intra-system Uniformity in Mass and Radius
• Migration and Dynamical Relaxation in Crowded Systems of Giant Planets
• The State-of-the-Art HST Astro-Photometric Analysis of the core of $\omega$ Centauri. I. The Catalog
• The Photoeccentric Effect and Proto-Hot Jupiters I. Measuring photometric eccentricities of individual transiting planets
• Secure TTV Mass Measurements: Ten Kepler Exoplanets between 3 and 8 Earth Masses with Diverse Densities and Incident Fluxes
• Dynamical Constraints on the HR 8799 Planets with GPI
• AMD-stability and the classification of planetary systems
• Stability Limits in Extra-solar Planetary Systems
• Three Body Resonance Overlap in Closely Spaced Multiple Planet Systems
• The mass of the Mars-sized exoplanet Kepler-138 b from transit timing
• On the Age of the TRAPPIST-1 System
• Characterizing the Orbital Eccentricities of Transiting Extrasolar Planets with Photometric Observations
• Measurement of planet masses with transit timing variations due to synodic "chopping" effects
• Predicting the long-term stability of compact multiplanet systems
• Convergent Migration Renders TRAPPIST-1 Long-lived
• Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: II. Confirmation of Two Multiplanet Systems via a Non-parametric Correlation Analysis
• The stability of tightly-packed, evenly-spaced systems of Earth-mass planets orbiting a Sun-like star
• Correlations between compositions and orbits established by the giant impact era of planet formation
• Characterizing Distant Worlds with Asterodensity Profiling
• Rocky super-Earths or waterworlds: the interplay of planet migration, pebble accretion and disc evolution
• Observational biases in determining extrasolar planet eccentricities in single-planet systems
• A Criterion for the Onset of Chaos in Systems of Two Eccentric Planets
• A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Tightly Packed Planetary Systems
• The path to instability in compact multi-planetary systems
• An information theoretic framework for classifying exoplanetary system architectures
• Dynamical Stability of Imaged Planetary Systems in Formation: Application to HL Tau
• Predicting Exoplanets Mass and Radius: A Nonparametric Approach
• Hill stability in the AMD framework
• Evolutionary Models of Super-Earths and Mini-Neptunes Incorporating Cooling and Mass Loss
• The Effect of Conjunctions on the Transit Timing Variations of Exoplanets
• A Joint Mass-Radius-Period Distribution of Exoplanets
• AMD-stability in presence of first order Mean Motion Resonances
• A Novel Method to Photometrically Constrain Orbital Eccentricities: Multibody Asterodensity Profiling (MAP)
• An Integrable Model for the Dynamics of Planetary Mean Motion Resonances
• Survival of non-coplanar, closely-packed planetary systems after a close encounter
• Forming Diverse Super-Earth Systems in Situ
• Plausible Compositions of the Seven TRAPPIST-1 Planets Using Long-term Dynamical Simulations
• No evidence for interstellar planetesimals trapped in the Solar System
• How Low Can You Go? The Photoeccentric Effect for Planets of Various Sizes
• Fundamental limits from chaos on instability time predictions in compact planetary systems
• JANUS: A bit-wise reversible integrator for N-body dynamics
• Nekhoroshev Estimates for the Survival Time of Tightly Packed Planetary Systems
• Host Star Dependence of Small Planet Mass-Radius Distributions
• Connecting HL Tau to the Observed Exoplanet Sample
• Electric Currents through J-shaped and Non-J-shaped Flare Ribbons
• Measuring the Orbital Parameters of Radial Velocity Systems in Mean Motion Resonance---a Case Study of HD 200964

Cited by in corpus (12)

• Warm terrestrial planet with half the mass of Venus transiting a nearby star
• A framework for the architecture of exoplanetary systems. II. Nature versus nurture: Emergent formation pathways of architecture classes
• How Close are Compact Multi-Planet Systems to the Stability Limit?
• Chaos in multiplanetary extrasolar systems
• Stability Constrained Characterization of the 23 Myr-old V1298 Tau System: Do Young Planets Form in Mean Motion Resonance Chains?
• Updated Planetary Mass Constraints of the Young V1298 Tau System Using MAROON-X
• On the Degree of Dynamical Packing in the Kepler Multi-planet Systems
• Periodic orbits in the 1:2:3 resonant chain and their impact on the orbital dynamics of the Kepler-51 planetary system
• Global dynamics and architecture of the Kepler-444 system
• A Bayesian neural network predicts the dissolution of compact planetary systems
• ARDENT: A Python package for fast dynamical detection limits with radial velocities
• A Criterion for the Onset of Chaos in Compact, Eccentric Multiplanet Systems