MESS (Multi-purpose Exoplanet Simulation System): A Monte Carlo tool for the statistical analysis and prediction of exoplanets search results

Abstract

The high number of planet discoveries made in the last years provides a good sample for statistical analysis, leading to some clues on the distributions of planet parameters, like masses and periods, at least in close proximity to the host star. We likely need to wait for the extremely large telescopes (ELTs) to have an overall view of the extrasolar planetary systems. In this context it would be useful to have a tool that can be used for the interpretation of the present results,and also to predict what the outcomes would be of the future instruments. For this reason we built MESS: a Monte Carlo simulation code which uses either the results of the statistical analysis of the properties of discovered planets, or the results of the planet formation theories, to build synthetic planet populations fully described in terms of frequency, orbital elements and physical properties. They can then be used to either test the consistency of their properties with the observed population of planets given different detection techniques or to actually predict the expected number of planets for future surveys. In addition to the code description, we present here some of its applications to actually probe the physical and orbital properties of a putative companion within the circumstellar disk of a given star and to test constrain the orbital distribution properties of a potential planet population around the members of the TW Hydrae association. Finally, using in its predictive mode, the synergy of future space and ground-based telescopes instrumentation has been investigated to identify the mass-period parameter space that will be probed in future surveys for giant and rocky planets

14 pages, 16 figures

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• The VLT/NaCo large program to probe the occurrence of exoplanets and brown dwarfs at wide orbits. IV. Gravitational instability rarely forms wide, giant planets
• A survey of young, nearby, and dusty stars to understand the formation of wide-orbit giant planets
• The VLT/NaCo large program to probe the occurrence of exoplanets and brown dwarfs at wide orbits: II- Survey description, results and performances
• High resolution imaging of young M-type stars of the solar neighborhood: Probing the existence of companions down to the mass of Jupiter
• The SEEDS Direct Imaging Survey for Planets and Scattered Dust Emission in Debris Disk Systems
• The LEECH Exoplanet Imaging Survey: Limits on Planet Occurrence Rates Under Conservative Assumptions
• A Direct Imaging Survey of Spitzer detected debris disks: Occurrence of giant planets in dusty systems
• Perturbers: SPHERE detection limits to planetary-mass companions in protoplanetary disks
• High Contrast Imaging of the Close Environment of HD 142527 -
• The SPHERE infrared survey for exoplanets (SHINE)- I Sample definition and target characterization
• New Techniques for High-Contrast Imaging with ADI: the ACORNS-ADI SEEDS Data Reduction Pipeline
• SPOTS: The Search for Planets Orbiting Two Stars: II. First constraints on the frequency of sub-stellar companions on wide circumbinary orbits
• MASSIVE: A Bayesian analysis of giant planet populations around low-mass stars
• Peering into the Young Planetary System AB Pic. Atmosphere, Orbit, Obliquity & Second Planetary Candidate
• Direct imaging of sub-Jupiter mass exoplanets with James Webb Space Telescope coronagraphy
• Constraints on the architecture of the HD 95086 planetary system with the Gemini Planet Imager
• Combining direct imaging and radial velocity data towards a full exploration of the giant planet population
• SPOTS: The Search for Planets Orbiting Two Stars. I. Survey description and first observations
• Completeness of Imaging Surveys for Eccentric Exoplanets
• Occurrence Rates from Direct Imaging Surveys
• Quick-MESS: A fast statistical tool for Exoplanet Imaging Surveys
• Upper limits for Mass and Radius of objects around Proxima Cen from SPHERE/VLT
• Imaging radial velocity planets with SPHERE
• New binaries from the SHINE survey
• A search for companions via direct imaging in the DSHARP planet-forming disks
• Large Adaptive Optics Survey for Substellar Objects (LASSO) Around Young, Nearby, Low-mass Stars with Robo-AO
• In-depth direct imaging and spectroscopic characterization of the young Solar System analog HD 95086
• Limits on the presence of planets in systems with debris disks: HD 92945 and HD 107146
• LBT search for companions and sub-structures in the (pre)transitional disk of AB Aurigae
• Detecting planetary mass companions near the water frost-line using JWST interferometry
• An optimised survey strategy for the ERIS/NIX imager: searching for young giant exoplanets and very low mass brown dwarfs using the K-peak custom photometric filter
• VLT/SPHERE survey for exoplanets around young, early-type stars including systems with multi-belt architectures