Are the Variations in Quasar Optical Flux Driven by Thermal Fluctuations?

Abstract

We analyze a sample of optical light curves for 100 quasars, 70 of which have black hole mass estimates. Our sample is the largest and broadest used yet for modeling quasar variability. The sources in our sample have z < 2.8 and 10^6 < M_BH < 10^10. We model the light curves as a continuous time stochastic process, providing a natural means of estimating the characteristic time scale and amplitude of quasar variations. We employ a Bayesian approach to estimate the characteristic time scale and amplitude of flux variations; our approach is not affected by biases introduced from discrete sampling effects. We find that the characteristic time scales strongly correlate with black hole mass and luminosity, and are consistent with disk orbital or thermal time scales. In addition, the amplitude of short time scale variations is significantly anti-correlated with black hole mass and luminosity. We interpret the optical flux fluctuations as resulting from thermal fluctuations that are driven by an underlying stochastic process, such as a turbulent magnetic field. In addition, the intranight variations in optical flux implied by our empirical model are < 0.02 mag, consistent with current microvariability observations of radio-quiet quasars. Our stochastic model is therefore able to unify both long and short time scale optical variations in radio-quiet quasars as resulting from the same underlying process, while radio-loud quasars have an additional variability component that operates on time scales < 1 day.

In press at ApJ, 17 pages, emulateapj, 10 figures

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• The Time-Domain Spectroscopic Survey: Understanding the Optically Variable Sky with SEQUELS in SDSS-III
• LSST Cadence Strategy Evaluations for AGN Time-series Data in Wide-Fast-Deep Field
• Kepler light curve analysis of the blazar W2R 1926+42
• A Gravitationally Lensed Quasar Discovered in OGLE
• Disc Novae: Thermodynamics of Gas Assisted Binary Black Hole Formation in AGN Discs
• A Negative Long Lag from the Optical to the UV Continuum in Fairall 9
• Do the Kepler AGN Light Curves Need Re-processing?
• The Mass-Richness Relation of MaxBCG Clusters from Quasar Lensing Magnification using Variability
• Optical follow-up of the tick-tock massive black hole binary candidate
• A 6.4yr optical quasi-periodic oscillations in SDSS J075217.84+193542.2: a new candidate for central binary black hole system
• On the UV/optical variation in NGC 5548: new evidence against the reprocessing diagram
• A decades-long fast-rise-exponential-decay flare in low-luminosity AGN NGC 7213
• Incorporating Measurement Error in Astronomical Object Classification
• Modelling time delays from two reprocessors in active galactic nuclei
• OzDES Reverberation Mapping Program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-year CIV analysis
• Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar
• A New Approach for Measuring Power Spectra and Reconstructing Time Series in Active Galactic Nuclei
• Imprints of the quasar structure in time-delay light curves: Microlensing-aided reverberation mapping
• Discovering the Mass-Scaled Damping Timescale from Microquasars to Blazars
• Local Active Galactic Nuclei with Large Broad-Hα Variability Reside in Red Galaxies
• Properties of long-term optical variability of active galactic nuclei with double-peaked broad low-ionization emission lines
• An intrinsic link between long-term UV/optical variations and X-ray loudness in quasars
• Further Evidence for the Accretion Disk Origination of the Double-Peaked Broad H$\alpha$ of 3C390.3
• Flares in the changing look AGN Mrk 590. I: The UV response to X-ray outbursts suggests a more complex reprocessing geometry than a standard disk
• AGN STORM 2: II. Ultraviolet Observations of Mrk817 with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope
• Ensemble power spectral density of SDSS quasars in UV/optical bands
• Reliable Identification of Binary Supermassive Black Holes from Rubin Observatory Time-Domain Monitoring
• Evidence for a milliparsec-separation Supermassive Binary Black Hole with quasar microlensing
• Characterization of Optical Light Curves of Extreme Variability Quasars Over a ~16-yr Baseline
• Modeling the Variability of Active Galactic Nuclei by Infinite Mixture of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU) Processes
• Constraining AGN Torus Sizes with Optical and Mid-Infrared Ensemble Structure Functions
• On possible proxies of AGN light curves cadence selection in future time domain surveys
• Variable classification in the LSST era: Exploring a model for quasi-periodic light curves
• How can the optical variation properties of active galactic nuclei be unbiasedly measured?
• A Mote in Andromeda's Disk: a Misidentified Periodic AGN Behind M31
• The origin of the soft X-ray excess in the narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy SBS 1353+564
• Lensed quasar search via time variability with the HSC transient survey
• Reverberation Mapping with Intermediate-Band Photometry: Detection of Broad-Line H$\alpha$ Time Lags for Quasars at $0.2<z<0.4$
• Mid-infrared Variability of gamma-ray emitting blazars
• Identification of AGN in the XMM-Newton X-ray survey of the SMC
• Continuum reverberation mapping of the quasar PG 2130+099
• The ensemble optical variability of type-1 AGN in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7
• Robust and Accurate Inference via a Mixture of Gaussian and Student's t Errors
• Testing the linear relationship between black hole mass and variability timescale in low-luminosity AGN at submillimeter wavelengths
• The effects of Time-Variable Absorption due to Gamma-Ray Bursts In Active Galactic Nuclei Accretion Disks
• Detecting subparsec super-massive binary black holes: Long termmonitoring perspective
• Discovering Strongly-lensed QSOs From Unresolved Light Curves
• Hierarchical Reverberation Mapping
• Spectral and Time Series Analyses of the Seyfert 1 AGN: Zw 229.015
• Identifying lensed quasars and measuring their time-delays from unresolved light curves
• Continuum optical-UV and X-ray variability of AGN: current results and future challenges
• On Granulation and Irregular Variation of Red Supergiants
• Broad-line region configuration of the supermassive binary black hole candidate PG1302-102 in the relativistic Doppler boosting scenario
• Transient Weak-Lensing by Cosmological Dark Matter Microhaloes
• Measuring Lensing Magnification of Quasars by Large Scale Structure using the Variability-Luminosity Relation
• On the Performance of Quasar Reverberation Mapping in the Era of Time-Domain Photometric Surveys
• The GALEX Time Domain Survey. II. Wavelength-Dependent Variability of Active Galactic Nuclei in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey
• A new timescale-mass scaling for the optical variation of active galactic nuclei across the intermediate-mass to supermassive scales
• Estimation of the size and structure of the broad line region using Bayesian approach
• Wavelength-resolved reverberation mapping of intermediate redshift quasars HE 0413-4031 and HE 0435-4312: Dissecting Mg II, optical Fe II, and UV Fe II emission regions
• Broad-band spectral energy distribution of 3000 Angstroem break quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
• The SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper Reverberation Mapping Project: Unusual Broad-Line Variability in a Luminous Quasar
• Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties
• Accretion in active galactic nuclei and disk-jet coupling
• A 3.8yr optical quasi-periodic oscillations in blue quasar SDSS J132144+033055 through combined light curves from CSS and ZTF
• Rapid Optical Variations Correlated with X-rays in the 2015 Second Outburst of V404 Cygni (GS 2023$+$338)
• Wavelength-resolved Reverberation Mapping of quasar CTSC30.10: Dissecting MgII and FeII emission regions
• New Clues to Jet Launching: The inner disks in radio loud quasars may be more stable
• Investigating the Theory of Propagating Fluctuations with Numerical Models of Stochastic Accretion Discs
• Results of a systematic search for outburst events in 1.4 million galaxies
• Paving the Way for Euclid and JWST via Optimal Selection of High-z Quasars
• Using Leaked Power to Measure Intrinsic AGN Power Spectra of Red-Noise Time Series
• Estimating Black Hole Masses in Hundreds of Quasars
• Individual optical variability of Active Galactic Nuclei from the MEXSAS2 sample
• Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameter extraction from light curves of Fermi-LAT observed blazars
• Reverberation-mapping of distant quasars: time-lag determination using different methods
• Examining the Infrared Variable Star Population Discovered in the Small Magellanic Cloud Using the SAGE-SMC Survey
• More variable quasars have stronger emission lines
• AGN Light Echoes and the Accretion Disc Self-Gravity Limit
• SDSS J1058+5443: A blue quasar does not have optical/NUV broad emission lines
• The JCMT Transient Survey: Single Epoch Transients and Variability of Faint Sources
• Space Photometry with BRITE-Constellation
• AGN behind the SMC selected from radio and X-ray surveys
• The H$\alpha$ broadband photometric reverberation mapping of four Seyfert 1 galaxies
• ESPRESSO reveals a single but perturbed broad-line region in the supermassive black hole binary candidate PG 1302-102
• Solving the puzzle of discrepant quasar variability on monthly time-scales implied by SDSS and CRTS data sets
• Probing the disc-jet coupling in S4 0954+65, PKS 0903-57, & 4C +01.02 with $\gamma$-rays
• Dust Reverberation Mapping of Z229-15
• Signatures of the disk-jet coupling in the Broad-line Radio Quasar 4C+74.26
• Probing spectral properties of radio-quiet quasars searched for optical microvariability
• Continuum reverberation mapping of MCG 08-11-011
• Systematic research of low redshift optically selected SDSS Type-2 AGN but with apparent long-term optical variabilities from Catalina Sky Survey, I: data sample and basic results
• Search for X-ray Quasi-periodicity of six AGNs using Gaussian Process method
• TD-CARMA: Painless, accurate, and scalable estimates of gravitational-lens time delays with flexible CARMA processes
• TESS Shines Light on the Origin of the Ambiguous Nuclear Transient ASASSN-18el
• Dark Energy Survey Identification of A Low-Mass Active Galactic Nucleus at Redshift 0.823 from Optical Variability
• Multiwavelength monitoring of the nucleus in PBC J2333.9-2343: the giant radio galaxy with a blazar-like core
• Spectroscopic reverberation mapping of Quasar PKS 0736+017: Broad-Line Region and Black-hole Mass
• Dust Reverberation Mapping of Type 2 AGN NGC 2110 Realized with X-ray and 3-5 $\mu$m IR monitoring
• Medium-band Photometry Reverberation Mapping of Nearby Active Galactic Nuclei
• Strongly Lensed Jets, Time Delays, and the Value of H0
• Stellar transits in active galactic nuclei
• Complex optical/UV and X-ray variability in Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 509
• Conditional Neural Process for non-parametric modeling of AGN light curve
• Black hole virial masses from single-epoch photometry: the miniJPAS test case
• Selection of Burst-like Transients and Stochastic Variables Using Multi-Band Image Differencing in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium-Deep Survey
• Optical variability modeling of newly identified blazar candidates behind Magellanic Clouds
• UV Fe II emission model of HE 0413-4031 and its relation to broad-line time delays
• Quasars as Standard Candles V. Evaluation of a $\le$ 0.06 dex intrinsic dispersion in the LX-LUV relation
• Broadband Photometric Reverberation Mapping Analysis on SDSS-RM and Stripe 82 Quasars
• Testing the Cosmological Principle: On the Time Dilation of Distant Sources
• A new 2D stochastic methodology for simulating variable accretion discs: propagating fluctuations and epicyclic motion
• The long-term broad-line responsivity in MKN 110
• Differential Interferometric Signatures of Close Binaries of Supermassive Black Holes in Active Galactic Nuclei: II. Merged Broad Line Regions
• Geometric Distances of Quasars Measured by Spectroastrometry and Reverberation Mapping:Monte Carlo Simulations
• Complex Variability of Kepler AGN Revealed by Recurrence Analysis
• A candidate of binary black hole system in AGN with broad Balmer emission lines having quite different line widths
• Dwarf AGNs from Variability for the Origins of Seeds (DAVOS): Optical Variability of Broad-line Dwarf AGNs from the Zwicky Transient Facility
• TLDR: Time Lag/Delay Reconstructor
• Disentangling the optical AGN and Host-galaxy luminosity with a probabilistic Flux Variation Gradient
• Strong Lensed QSOs with Variability Detectable by LSST: How many are there?
• Photoreverberation mapping of quasars in the context of LSST observing strategies
• Changing look AGN Mrk 590: Broad line region and black hole mass from photometric reverberation mapping
• Identification of blazar candidates behind Small and Large Magellanic Clouds
• A Gaussian process cross-correlation approach to time delay estimation in active galactic nuclei
• Using Gaussian Processes to detect AGN flares
• Velocity-Resolved Ionization Mapping of Broad Line Region. I. Insights into Diverse Geometry and Kinematics
• More Evidence for the Intermediate Broad Line Region of the Mapped AGN PG 0052+251
• A catalogue of candidate milli-parsec separation massive black hole binaries from long term optical photometric monitoring
• A Sample Bias in Quasar Variability Studies
• Examining AGN UV/Optical Variability Beyond the Simple Damped Random Walk. II. Insights from 22 Years Observations of SDSS, PS1 and ZTF
• Modelling variability power spectra of active galaxies from irregular time series
• Extreme Variability Quasars in Their Various States. II: Spectral Variation Revealed with Multi-epoch Spectra
• An Extremely Luminous Flare Recorded from a Supermassive Black Hole
• Optical variability of quasars: a damped random walk
• Long-term variability of the composite galaxy SDSS J103911-000057: A candidate of true Type-2 AGN
• Variability in Quasar Light Curves: using quasars as standard candles
• Composite reverberation mapping
• Modeling the response of a standard accretion disc to stochastic viscous fluctuations
• Exploring the Connection between UV/Optical Variations and Radio Emission in Radio-Quiet Quasars: Clues on Radio Emission Origin
• On the Origin of the Dramatic Spectral Variability of WPVS 007
• Temperature Profiles of Accretion Disks in Luminous Active Galactic Nuclei derived from Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Variability
• Ensemble Variability Properties of Active Galactic Nuclei in the SDSS DR17
• AGNet: Weighing Black Holes with Deep Learning
• The mid-infrared variability of the SDSS optical quasars
• The Awakening Beast in the Seyfert 1 Galaxy KUG 1141+371 I
• Stochastic modeling of the time variability of ALMA calibrators
• Testing compact massive black hole binary candidates through multi-epoch spectroscopy
• X-ray reverberation modelling of the continuum, optical/UV time-lags in quasars
• Periodic variability of the z=2.0 quasar QSO B1312+7837
• Swift Monitoring Observations of Mrk 231: Detection of Ultraviolet Variability
• Optical variability of ICRF3 quasars in the Pan-STARRS 3Pi survey with functional principal components analysis
• Quasi-Periodic Peak Energy Oscillations in X-ray Bursts from SGR J1935+2154
• Optical polarization of stellar-fed active and quiescent supermassive black holes
• Multi-wavelength properties of changing-state active galactic nuclei: I. the evolution of soft excess and X-ray continuum
• Rms-flux relation in the optical fast variability data of BL Lacertae object S5 0716+714
• K2 Optical Emission from OJ 287 and Other Gamma-Ray Blazars on Hours-to-Weeks Timescales from 2014-2018
• Observational window effects on multi-object Reverberation Mapping
• An X-ray View of the Ambiguous Nuclear Transient AT2019pev
• The Performance of Photometric Reverberation Mapping at High Redshift and the Reliability of Damped Random Walk Models
• A Systematic Search for Active Galactic Nucleus Flares in ZTF Data Release 23
• Optical spectral index - luminosity relation for the 17 mapped Palomar-Green quasars
• Brightness and colour variability in NLSy1s
• The Variability of the Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Galaxies from the PanSTARRS's View
• Standardizing reverberation-measured Mg II time-lag quasars, by using the radius-luminosity relation, and constraining cosmological model parameters
• Time domain methods for X-ray and gamma-ray astronomy
• Polarization Studies in Different Blazar Types. Part I: Correlation between Optical Brightness and Polarization Degree
• High frequency breaks in optical active galactic nuclei power spectral density
• The Vast Potential of Exoplanet Satellites for High-Energy Astrophysics
• A novel approach to study the variability of NGC 5548
• Scalable and Robust Multiband Modeling of AGN Light Curves in Rubin-LSST
• Continuum polarization reverberation mapping of AGNs
• Accretion disc reverberation mapping of the quasar 3C 273
• The comparison of optical variability of broad-line Seyfert 1 and narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies from the view of Pan-STARRS
• HALO I: Photometric continuum reverberation mapping of Fairall 9
• Discovery of two quasars at $z=5$ from the OGLE Survey
• Controlling Outlier Contamination In Multimessenger Time-domain Searches For Supermasssive Binary Black Holes
• Light-curve instabilities of Beta Lyrae observed by the BRITE satellites
• Variability Signatures of a Burst Process in Flaring Gamma-ray Blazars
• Photometric variability in star-forming galaxies as evidence for low-mass AGN and a precursor to quenching
• Decadal Variability Survey in MACSJ1149
• Long-term optical flux and colour variability in quasars
• The Feasibility and Flexibility of Selecting Quasars by Variability Using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms
• Variability as a new discovery channel for Intermediate-Mass Black Holes in the Time Domain Era
• Optical selection of quasars: SDSS and LSST
• About 300 days optical quasi-periodic oscillations in the long-term light curves of the blazar PKS 2155-304
• Harnessing Unresolved Lensed Quasars: The Mathematical Foundation of the Fluctuation Curve
• Six Maxims of Statistical Acumen for Astronomical Data Analysis
• Amoeba: An AGN Model of Optical Emissions Beyond steady-state Accretion discs
• Identifying massive black hole binaries via light curve variability in optical time-domain surveys
• Flares in the Changing Look AGN Mrk 590. II: Deep X-ray observations reveal a Comptonizing inner accretion flow
• SDSSJ14584479+3720215: A Benchmark JHK Blazar Light Curve from the 2MASS Calibration Scans
• Can a time evolving, asymmetric broad line region mimic a massive black hole binary?
• Detection of quasars in the time domain
• Optical variability of eight FRII-type quasars with 13-yr photometric light curves
• The ensemble broad-frequency power spectrum of Stripe-82 quasars from multiple surveys
• Reprocessing Models for the Optical Light Curves of Hypervariable Quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project
• AT 2021hdr: A candidate tidal disruption of a gas cloud by a binary super massive black hole system
• A Comparison of Properties of Quasars with and without Rapid Broad Absorption Line Variability
• The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: UV-Optical Accretion Disk Measurements with Hubble Space Telescope
• Modeling quasar variability through self-organizing map-based process
• Quasar Microlensing Models with Constraints on the Quasar Light Curves
• On the time delay evolution of five Active Galactic Nuclei
• Searching for unresolved massive black hole pairs through AGN photometric variability
• Discovery of the Asymmetric Effect in the Response of Photoionization Gas
• Feature Selection for Classification of Blazars Based on Optical Photometric and Polarimetric Time-Series Data
• Identifying Changing-Look AGN Transitions in Light Curve Data with the Zwicky Transient Facility
• Mid-infrared Variability-based AGN Selection using the Multi-epoch Photometric Data from WISE
• A Unified Interpretation of Supernova, GRB, and QSO Time Dilation Signals in a Generalized Cosmological Time Framework
• Seeing through the dust: Unraveling near-infrared variability in type 2 active galactic nuclei
• A Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis for Estimating the Hubble Constant via Time Delay Cosmography
• Optical Variability Structure Function of Low-Luminosity AGN using ATLAS Lightcurves
• Fast giant flares in discs around supermassive black holes
• Waiting times between gamma-ray flares of Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars, and constraints on emission processes
• Extreme variability quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey
• X-ray Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in Active Galactic Nuclei and Their Implications for the Changing Look Phenomenon
• Reverberation Mapping of Two Luminous Quasars: the Broad-line Region Structure and Black Hole Mass
• Variability Selected Active Galactic Nuclei from ASAS-SN Survey: Constraining the Low Luminosity AGN Population
• The possible long-term periodic variability of the extremely luminous quasar WISE J090924.01+000211.1
• The shortest detected intra-day variability of active galactic nuclei in TESS survey
• SDSS J153231.80+420342.7: a triple black hole candidate with a close binary black hole
• AGILE: an end-to-end Rubin-LSST simulation of AGNs, galaxies, and stars I. Software description and first data release
• Optical Variability as a Probe of Hidden Nuclear Activity in Type 2 AGNs