paper

Planet Across Space and Time (PAST). VII. The origin and tidal evolution of hot Jupiters constrained by a broken age-frequency relation

arXiv:2510.26084 · doi:10.1038/s41550-025-02693-6

Abstract

The discovery of hot Jupiters has challenged the classical planet formation theory. Although various formation mechanisms have been proposed, the dominant channel and relative contributions remain unclear. Furthermore, hot Jupiters offer a unique opportunity to test tidal theory and measure the fundamental tidal quality factor, which is yet to be well-constrained. In this work, based on a hot Jupiter sample around single Sun-like stars with kinematic properties, {we find that the declining trend of their frequency is broken with a ridge at about 2 Gyr, providing direct evidence that hot Jupiters are formed with multiple origins of different timescales. By fitting with the theoretical expectations, we provide a constraint of tidal factor for Sun-like stars, which aligns well with the detected number of hot Jupiters with orbital decay. Moreover, we simultaneously constrain the relative importance of different channels: although the majority of hot Jupiters are formed early, within several tenths of Gyr via 'Early' models (e.g., in-situ formation, disk migration, planet-planet scattering and Kozai-Lidov interaction), a significant portion (about 40%) should be formed late on a relatively long timescale extending up to several Gyr mainly via the secular chaos mechanism, further supported by the obliquity distribution of 'late-arrived' hot Jupiters. Our findings provide a unified framework that reconciles hot Jupiter demographics and long-term evolution with multichannel formation.

Published in Nature astronomy; 4 figures in main text, 7 figures and 3 tables in Methods, and 18 Figures in Supplementary information

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