The impact of priors and observables on parameter inferences in the Constrained MSSM

Abstract

We use a newly released version of the SuperBayeS code to analyze the impact of the choice of priors and the influence of various constraints on the statistical conclusions for the preferred values of the parameters of the Constrained MSSM. We assess the effect in a Bayesian framework and compare it with an alternative likelihood-based measure of a profile likelihood. We employ a new scanning algorithm (MultiNest) which increases the computational efficiency by a factor ~200 with respect to previously used techniques. We demonstrate that the currently available data are not yet sufficiently constraining to allow one to determine the preferred values of CMSSM parameters in a way that is completely independent of the choice of priors and statistical measures. While b->s gamma generally favors large m_0, this is in some contrast with the preference for low values of m_0 and m_1/2 that is almost entirely a consequence of a combination of prior effects and a single constraint coming from the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, which remains somewhat controversial. Using an information-theoretical measure, we find that the cosmological dark matter abundance determination provides at least 80% of the total constraining power of all available observables. Despite the remaining uncertainties, prospects for direct detection in the CMSSM remain excellent, with the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section almost guaranteed above sigma_SI ~ 10^{-10} pb, independently of the choice of priors or statistics. Likewise, gluino and lightest Higgs discovery at the LHC remain highly encouraging. While in this work we have used the CMSSM as particle physics model, our formalism and scanning technique can be readily applied to a wider class of models with several free parameters.

Minor changes, extended discussion of profile likelihood. Matches JHEP accepted version. SuperBayeS code with MultiNest algorithm available at http://www.superbayes.org

References in corpus (15)

• Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Likelihoods and Parameters from the WMAP data
• Multimodal nested sampling: an efficient and robust alternative to MCMC methods for astronomical data analysis
• First Results from the XENON10 Dark Matter Experiment at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory
• Hadronic Uncertainties in the Elastic Scattering of Supersymmetric Dark Matter
• NNLO QCD corrections to the B -> X_s gamma matrix elements using interpolation in m_c
• Improved predictions for g-2 of the muon and α_{\rm QED}(M_Z^2)
• First limits on WIMP nuclear recoil signals in ZEPLIN-II: a two phase xenon detector for dark matter detection
• Bayesian Selection of sign(mu) within mSUGRA in Global Fits Including WMAP5 Results
• The Dark Side of mSUGRA
• New Constraints on SUSY Flavour Mixing in Light of Recent Measurements at the Tevatron
• On the detectability of the CMSSM light Higgs boson at the Tevatron
• Prospects for direct dark matter detection in the Constrained MSSM
• On prospects for dark matter indirect detection in the Constrained MSSM
• Global Fits of the Large Volume String Scenario to WMAP5 and Other Indirect Constraints Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
• Panglossian Prospects for Detecting Neutralino Dark Matter in Light of Natural Priors

Cited by in corpus (153)

• MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics
• Dark Matter Candidates from Particle Physics and Methods of Detection
• Cosmology and Fundamental Physics with the Euclid Satellite
• Cosmology and fundamental physics with the Euclid satellite
• Dark Matter Results from 100 Live Days of XENON100 Data
• A novel determination of the local dark matter density
• The Baryonic Tully-Fisher Relation of Gas Rich Galaxies as a Test of LCDM and MOND
• First Dark Matter Results from the XENON100 Experiment
• Constraints on cosmic-ray propagation models from a global Bayesian analysis
• Bayesian coherent analysis of in-spiral gravitational wave signals with a detector network
• Supersymmetry Without Prejudice
• Accelerated expansion from ghost-free bigravity: a statistical analysis with improved generality
• Results from the First Science Run of the ZEPLIN-III Dark Matter Search Experiment
• Nested sampling for physical scientists
• WIMP-nucleon cross-section results from the second science run of ZEPLIN-III
• The moment of truth for WIMP Dark Matter
• Improved limits on dark matter annihilation in the Sun with the 79-string IceCube detector and implications for supersymmetry
• Benchmark Models, Planes, Lines and Points for Future SUSY Searches at the LHC
• Likelihood Approach to the First Dark Matter Results from XENON100
• Fitting the Phenomenological MSSM
• GAMBIT: The Global and Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool
• Scintillation efficiency and ionization yield of liquid xenon for mono-energetic nuclear recoils down to 4 keV
• Indirect Dark Matter Detection from Dwarf Satellites: Joint Expectations from Astrophysics and Supersymmetry
• Likelihood Functions for Supersymmetric Observables in Frequentist Analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1
• Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT
• Complementarity of Dark Matter Direct Detection Targets
• Global Fits of the cMSSM and NUHM including the LHC Higgs discovery and new XENON100 constraints
• Stochastic gravitational waves from cosmic string loops in scaling
• Use of the MultiNest algorithm for gravitational wave data analysis
• The local dark matter phase-space density and impact on WIMP direct detection
• A Global Analysis of Dark Matter Signals from 27 Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies using 11 Years of Fermi-LAT Observations
• Implications of the Higgs Boson Discovery for mSUGRA
• The MSSM confronts the precision electroweak data and the muon g-2
• GUT-scale constrained SUSY in light of E989 muon g-2 measurement
• Asymmetric Inelastic Inert Doublet Dark Matter from Triplet Scalar Leptogenesis
• Implications of LHC Searches on SUSY Particle Spectra: The pMSSM Parameter Space with Neutralino Dark Matter
• Updated global fits of the cMSSM including the latest LHC SUSY and Higgs searches and XENON100 data
• Cosmology and Convention
• Implications of XENON100 and LHC results for Dark Matter models
• A Profile Likelihood Analysis of the Constrained MSSM with Genetic Algorithms
• Bayesian approach and Naturalness in MSSM analyses for the LHC
• Direct Constraints on Minimal Supersymmetry from Fermi-LAT Observations of the Dwarf Galaxy Segue 1
• Hunting Down the Best Model of Inflation with Bayesian Evidence
• Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans
• Directional detection as a strategy to discover Galactic Dark Matter
• Supersymmetry and Dark Matter in Light of LHC 2010 and Xenon100 Data
• Reconstructing WIMP Properties in Direct Detection Experiments Including Galactic Dark Matter Distribution Uncertainties
• Predictions and Outcomes for the Dynamics of Rotating Galaxies
• Assessing the discovery potential of directional detection of Dark Matter
• Constraining the MSSM with universal gaugino masses and implication for searches at the LHC
• Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data
• Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module
• Searches for the BSM scenarios at the LHC using decision tree based machine learning algorithms: A comparative study and review of Random Forest, Adaboost, XGboost and LightGBM frameworks
• The Impact of Recent Advances in Laboratory Astrophysics on our Understanding of the Cosmos
• Identification of Dark Matter particles with LHC and direct detection data
• Direct detection of WIMPs
• Impact of CMS Multi-jets and Missing Energy Search on CMSSM Fits
• A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches
• Profile likelihood maps of a 15-dimensional MSSM
• Pippi - painless parsing, post-processing and plotting of posterior and likelihood samples
• SUSY Constraints, Relic Density, and Very Early Universe
• GUT Physics in the era of the LHC
• Here be Dragons: The Unexplored Continents of the CMSSM
• Publishing statistical models: Getting the most out of particle physics experiments
• Bayesian Implications of Current LHC Supersymmetry and Dark Matter Detection Searches for the Constrained MSSM
• Global fits of the Non-Universal Higgs Model
• Exclusion limits from data of directional Dark Matter detectors
• A self-consistent phase-space distribution function for the anisotropic Dark Matter halo of the Milky Way
• Identifying WIMP dark matter from particle and astroparticle data
• Statistical methods for cosmological parameter selection and estimation
• Selecting a Model of Supersymmetry Breaking Mediation
• Use of event-level neutrino telescope data in global fits for theories of new physics
• How well will ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments constrain minimal supersymmetry?
• Taming astrophysical bias in direct dark matter searches
• Constraining the dark energy equation of state using Bayes theorem and the Kullback-Leibler divergence
• Phenomenology of Pure General Gauge Mediation
• Statistical Issues in Astrophysical Searches for Particle Dark Matter
• FCNC Processes in the Littlest Higgs Model with T-Parity: an Update
• Fractal initial conditions and natural parameter values in hybrid inflation
• Two ultimate tests of constrained supersymmetry
• Bayesian Implications of Current LHC and XENON100 Search Limits for the Constrained MSSM
• Efficient reconstruction of CMSSM parameters from LHC data - A case study
• A Coverage Study of the CMSSM Based on ATLAS Sensitivity Using Fast Neural Networks Techniques
• The impact of the ATLAS zero-lepton, jets and missing momentum search on a CMSSM fit
• A Search for the Dark Matter Annual Modulation in South Pole Ice
• Effective Field Theory of Dark Matter: a Global Analysis
• BAMBI: blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference
• Complementarity of direct and indirect Dark Matter detection experiments
• Dark Matter in the MSSM
• MSSM Forecast for the LHC
• A Novel Approach to Fine-Tuned Supersymmetric Standard Models -- Case of Non-Universal Higgs Masses model
• GAMBIT and its Application in the Search for Physics Beyond the Standard Model
• Shortcomings of New Parametrizations of Inflation
• Global fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions scenario
• Prospects for dark matter detection with IceCube in the context of the CMSSM
• Effective Supersymmetry at the LHC
• SUSY parameter determination at the LHC using cross sections and kinematic edges
• What can(not) be measured with ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments
• Dark matter interpretations of ATLAS searches for the electroweak production of supersymmetric particles in $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV proton-proton collisions
• A Bayesian Analysis of the Constrained NMSSM
• Complementarity of Indirect and Accelerator Dark Matter Searches
• A comparison of optimisation algorithms for high-dimensional particle and astrophysics applications
• Fast Bayesian inference for slow-roll inflation
• Naturalness of the relaxion mechanism
• Nested sampling cross-checks using order statistics
• Heart of Darkness: The Significance of the Zeptobarn Scale for Neutralino Direct Detection
• Profile Likelihoods in Cosmology: When, Why and How illustrated with $\Lambda$CDM, Massive Neutrinos and Dark Energy
• Soft Probes of SU(5) Unification
• Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter
• Should we doubt the cosmological constant?
• The WIMP Paradigm: Theme and Variations
• A proper motion catalogue for the Milky Way's nuclear stellar disc
• Bayesim: a tool for adaptive grid model fitting with Bayesian inference
• Implications for constrained supersymmetry of combined H.E.S.S. observations of dwarf galaxies, the Galactic halo and the Galactic Centre
• Bayesian evidence for non-zero theta_13 and CP-violation in neutrino oscillations
• Is the CNMSSM more credible than the CMSSM?
• Dark Matter Searches: The Nightmare Scenario
• The impact of XENON100 and the LHC on Supersymmetric Dark Matter
• Astrophysical interpretation of the anisotropies in the unresolved gamma-ray background
• Studies of a three-stage dark matter and neutrino observatory based on multi-ton combinations of liquid xenon and liquid argon detectors
• Bayesian analysis and naturalness of (Next-to-)Minimal Supersymmetric Models
• Constraints on Supersymmetry from Relic Density compared with future Higgs Searches at the LHC
• Impact of nucleon matrix element uncertainties on the interpretation of direct and indirect dark matter search results
• CMSSM with Yukawa Quasi-Unification Revisited
• Where is SUSY?
• Classifying LISA gravitational wave burst signals using Bayesian evidence
• Predictions for the sky-averaged depth of the 21cm absorption signal at high redshift in cosmologies with and without non-baryonic cold dark matter
• Muon g-2, Neutralino Dark Matter and Stau NLSP
• Free-form modelling of galaxy clusters: a Bayesian and data-driven approach
• Directional detection of Dark Matter with MIMAC: WIMP identification and track reconstruction
• The LHC has ruled out Supersymmetry -- really?
• Supersymmetric SU(5) Grand Unification for a Post Higgs Boson Era
• Dark Matter and Higgs Mass in the CMSSM with Yukawa Quasi-Unification
• Supersymmetry With Prejudice: Fitting the Wrong Model to LHC Data
• Modelling the transient processes produced under heavy particle irradiation
• Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Model Higgs Scenarios for Partially Universal GUT Scale Boundary Conditions
• MSSM dark matter measurements at the LHC without squarks and sleptons
• Histogram comparison as a powerful tool for the search of new physics at LHC. Application to CMSSM
• R-parity violating chargino decays at the LHC
• Quantifying the tension between the Higgs mass and (g-2)_mu in the CMSSM
• Searches for Particle Dark Matter: An Introduction
• On SUSY GUTs with a degenerate Higgs mass matrix
• SUSY Tools for Dark Matter and at the Colliders
• Status and Implications of BSM Searches at the LHC
• Comment on "Bayesian evidence: can we beat MultiNest using traditional MCMC methods", by Rutger van Haasteren (arXiv:0911.2150)
• On the shape of the mass-function of dense clumps in the Hi-GAL fields. II. Using Bayesian inference to study the clump mass function
• Implications of SUSY Searches at the LHC for the ILC
• Dark matter signals at the LHC: forecasts from ton-scale direct detection experiments
• Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments
• Genuine NMSSM deviations in the 125 GeV Higgs boson decays
• Study of light detection and sensitivity for a ton-scale liquid xenon dark matter detector
• SUSY Predictions for the LHC
• Directional Detection of Dark Matter with MIMAC