Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments
arXiv:1310.5718
Abstract
Bayesian methods offer a coherent and efficient framework for implementing uncertainties into induction problems. In this article, we review how this approach applies to the analysis of dark matter direct detection experiments. In particular we discuss the exclusion limit of XENON100 and the debated hints of detection under the hypothesis of a WIMP signal. Within parameter inference, marginalizing consistently over uncertainties to extract robust posterior probability distributions, we find that the claimed tension between XENON100 and the other experiments can be partially alleviated in isospin violating scenario, while elastic scattering model appears to be compatible with the frequentist statistical approach. We then move to model comparison, for which Bayesian methods are particularly well suited. Firstly, we investigate the annual modulation seen in CoGeNT data, finding that there is weak evidence for a modulation. Modulation models due to other physics compare unfavorably with the WIMP models, paying the price for their excessive complexity. Secondly, we confront several coherent scattering models to determine the current best physical scenario compatible with the experimental hints. We find that exothermic and inelastic dark matter are moderatly disfavored against the elastic scenario, while the isospin violating model has a similar evidence. Lastly the Bayes' factor gives inconclusive evidence for an incompatibility between the data sets of XENON100 and the hints of detection. The same question assessed with goodness of fit would indicate a 2 sigma discrepancy. This suggests that more data are therefore needed to settle this question.
29 pages, 8 figures; invited review for the special issue of the journal Physics of the Dark Universe; matches the published version
References in corpus (32)
- First results from the LUX dark matter experiment at the Sanford Underground Research Facility
- Dark Matter Results from 225 Live Days of XENON100 Data
- Results from a Search for Light-Mass Dark Matter with a P-type Point Contact Germanium Detector
- Final model independent result of DAMA/LIBRA-phase1
- Results from a Low-Energy Analysis of the CDMS II Germanium Data
- First dark matter search results from a 4-kg CFI bubble chamber operated in a deep underground site
- CDMSlite: A Search for Low-Mass WIMPs using Voltage-Assisted Calorimetric Ionization Detection in the SuperCDMS Experiment
- Constraints on Low-Mass WIMP Interactions on 19F from PICASSO
- The Astrophysical Uncertainties Of Dark Matter Direct Detection Experiments
- Updated CMB constraints on Dark Matter annihilation cross-sections
- New Limits on Interactions between Weakly Interacting Massive Particles and Nucleons Obtained with CsI(Tl) Crystal Detectors
- Dark Matter Evidence, Particle Physics Candidates and Detection Methods
- Magnetic Inelastic Dark Matter
- Direct dark matter detection: the next decade
- The Dark Matter at the End of the Galaxy
- A search for low-mass WIMPs with EDELWEISS-II heat-and-ionization detectors
- SKYNET: an efficient and robust neural network training tool for machine learning in astronomy
- XENON10/100 dark matter constraints in comparison with CoGeNT and DAMA: examining the Leff dependence
- Complementarity of Dark Matter Direct Detection Targets
- Bayesian Selection of sign(mu) within mSUGRA in Global Fits Including WMAP5 Results
- Bayesian Calibrated Significance Levels Applied to the Spectral Tilt and Hemispherical Asymmetry
- Determining the WIMP mass using direct detection experiments
- The impact of going beyond the Maxwell distribution in direct dark matter detection rates
- Identification of Dark Matter particles with LHC and direct detection data
- Search for annual modulation in low-energy CDMS-II data
- Fundamental statistical limitations of future dark matter direct detection experiments
- Taming astrophysical bias in direct dark matter searches
- Maximum Likelihood Signal Extraction Method Applied to 3.4 years of CoGeNT Data
- Improved determination of the WIMP mass from direct detection data
- Using Effective Operators to Understand CoGeNT and CDMS-Silicon
- A comparison between the low-energy spectra from CoGeNT and CDMS
- Lowering the Threshold in the DAMA Dark Matter Search