TrES-1 b: A Case Study in Detecting Secular Evolution of Exoplanet Orbits

Abstract

We present a comprehensive analysis of transit, eclipse, and radial velocity data of the hot Jupiter TrES-1 b and confirm evidence of orbital variations on secular timescales. Apparent variations due to systemic motion and light travel time effects have been ruled out, indicating that the observed changes are dynamical in origin. Joint modeling of the TrES-1 b data favors an apsidal precession model, but the rapid precession rate of $4^{\circ }$ yr${}^{-1}$ cannot be explained without invoking an undetected close-in planetary companion, which remains unseen in the data. While radial velocity measurements reveal a previously undetected companion candidate on a wide, eccentric orbit, it is unlikely to drive the observed evolution of TrES-1 b. However, an orbital decay model provides a plausible alternative if the loss of orbital energy is driven by planetary obliquity tides. We find that the best-fit orbital decay rate of $-7.1_{-1.6}^{+1.5}$ ms yr${}^{-1}$ is aligned with theoretical predictions for modified tidal quality factors of hot Jupiters if TrES-1 b has a planetary obliquity ${\epsilon }_p>30^{\circ }$. We encourage follow-up observations of this system, particularly of eclipse timing and radial velocities, to further constrain the nature of the observed evolution. This paper provides a practical framework for studying secular variations and aims to accelerate future research on similar systems.

32 pages, 12 figures, 10 tables, accepted to AJ

References in corpus (79)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Array Programming with NumPy
• Astropy: A Community Python Package for Astronomy
• emcee: The MCMC Hammer
• The Astropy Project: Building an inclusive, open-science project and status of the v2.0 core package
• The Astropy Project: Sustaining and Growing a Community-oriented Open-source Project and the Latest Major Release (v5.0) of the Core Package
• The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• The Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) for the Spitzer Space Telescope
• MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics
• Multimodal nested sampling: an efficient and robust alternative to MCMC methods for astronomical data analysis
• The VizieR database of Astronomical Catalogues
• The Infrared Spectrograph on the Spitzer Space Telescope
• Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning II - A Bayesian Approach to Systematic Error Correction
• Achieving better than 1 minute accuracy in the Heliocentric and Barycentric Julian Dates
• On detecting terrestrial planets with timing of giant planet transits
• DHP Framework: Digital Health Passports Using Blockchain -- Use case on international tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic
• Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning I - Architecture and Algorithms for Error Correction in Kepler Light Curves
• Detection of Thermal Emission from an Extrasolar Planet
• Improved parameters for extrasolar transiting planets
• TrES-1: The Transiting Planet of a Bright K0V Star
• Tidal Evolution of Close-in Extra-Solar Planets
• The GAPS Programme with HARPS-N@TNG XIV. Investigating giant planet migration history via improved eccentricity and mass determination for 231 transiting planets
• Is tidal heating sufficient to explain bloated exoplanets? Consistent calculations accounting for finite initial eccentricity
• A population study of gaseous exoplanets
• A Robust Measure of Tidal Circularization in Coeval Binary Populations: The solar-type spectroscopic Binary Population in The Open Cluster M35
• Probing the Interiors of Very Hot Jupiters Using Transit Light Curves
• The Apparently Decaying Orbit of WASP-12
• The Orbit of WASP-12b is Decaying
• Effect of stellar spots on high-precision transit light-curve
• Exoplanet Transit Database. Reduction and processing of the photometric data of exoplanet transits
• Friends of Hot Jupiters. IV. Stellar companions beyond 50 AU might facilitate giant planet formation, but most are unlikely to cause Kozai-Lidov migration
• Measurement of the Rossiter--McLaughlin Effect in the Transiting Exoplanetary System TrES-1
• The Transit Light Curve Project. III. Tres Transits of TrES-1
• Tidal dissipation within hot Jupiters: a new appraisal
• Constraining Tidal Dissipation in Stars from The Destruction Rates of Exoplanets
• Observational constraints on tidal effects using orbital eccentricities
• Using long-term transit timing to detect terrestrial planets
• TESS Transit Timing of Hundreds of Hot Jupiters
• Empirical Tidal Dissipation in Exoplanet Hosts From Tidal Spin-Up
• An analysis of the transit times of TrES-1b
• Extrasolar Planet Transits Observed at Kitt Peak National Observatory
• Magnetic cycles at different ages of stars
• The continuing search for evidence of tidal orbital decay of hot Jupiters
• Benchmarking the power of amateur observatories for TTV exoplanets detection
• WIYN Open Cluster Study. LX. Spectroscopic Binary Orbits in NGC 6819
• Decaying Orbit of the Hot Jupiter WASP-12b: Confirmation with TESS Observations
• Adaptive Optics Images II: 12 Kepler Objects of Interest and 15 Confirmed Transiting Planets
• ExoClock Project III: 450 new exoplanet ephemerides from ground and space observations
• The ExoTETHyS package: Tools for Exoplanetary Transits around Host Stars
• A cool starspot or a second transiting planet in the TrES-1 system?
• Formation of Ultra-Short-Period Planets by Obliquity-Driven Tidal Runaway
• The California Planet Survey IV: A Planet Orbiting the Giant Star HD 145934 and Updates to Seven Systems with Long-Period Planets
• MOST Spacebased Photometry of the Transiting Exoplanet System HD 189733: Precise Timing Measurements for Transits Across an Active Star
• Understanding WASP-12b
• Orbital period variations of hot-Jupiters caused by the Applegate effect
• A Tentative Detection of a Starspot During Consecutive Transits of an Extrasolar Planet from the Ground: No Evidence of a Double Transiting Planet System Around TrES-1
• ExoClock project II: A large-scale integrated study with 180 updated exoplanet ephemerides
• Utilizing Small Telescopes Operated by Citizen Scientists for Transiting Exoplanet Follow-up
• Stellar proper motion and the timing of planetary transits
• TESS Revisits WASP-12: Updated Orbital Decay Rate and Constraints on Atmospheric Variability
• WASP-4 is Accelerating Toward the Earth
• Transit timing analysis of the exoplanets TrES-1 and TrES-2
• Obliquity Tides May Drive WASP-12b's Rapid Orbital Decay
• ExoClock Project: An open platform for monitoring the ephemerides of Ariel targets with contributions from the public
• How do starspots influence the transit timing variations of exoplanets? Simulations of individual and consecutive transits
• Original Research By Young Twinkle Students (ORBYTS): Ephemeris Refinement of Transiting Exoplanets
• Lucky Imaging of transiting planet host stars with LuckyCam
• Ephemeris refinement of 21 Hot Jupiter exoplanets with high timing uncertainties
• Chemical Composition of the Planet-Harboring Star TrES-1
• Transiting Exoplanet Monitoring Project (TEMP). VI. The Homogeneous Refinement of System Parameters for 39 Transiting Hot Jupiters with 127 New Light Curves
• Evidence of Long-Term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)
• Planetary transit observations at the University Observatory Jena: XO-1b and TrES-1
• Measuring Tidal Dissipation in Giant Planets from Tidal Circularization
• Utilizing a global network of telescopes to update the ephemeris for the highly eccentric planet HD 80606 b and to ensure the efficient scheduling of JWST
• Searching for Candidates of Orbital Decays among Transit Exoplanets
• On the orbital decay of the gas giant Kepler-1658b
• Searching for transit timing variations in transiting exoplanet systems
• Looking For Timing Variations in the Transits of 16 Exoplanets
• OrbDot: A Python package for studying the secular evolution of exoplanet orbits

Cited by in corpus (1)

• OrbDot: A Python package for studying the secular evolution of exoplanet orbits