Stars or gas? Constraining the hardening processes of massive black-hole binaries with LISA

Abstract

Massive black-hole binaries will be the loudest sources detectable by LISA. These systems are predicted to form during the hierarchical assembly of cosmic structures and coalesce by interacting with the surrounding environment. The hardening phase of their orbit is driven by either stars or gas and encodes distinctive features into the binary black holes that can potentially be reconstructed with gravitational-wave observations. We present a Bayesian framework to assess the likelihood of massive mergers being hardened by either gaseous or stellar interactions. We use state-of-the-art astrophysical models tracking the cosmological evolution of massive black-hole binaries and construct a large number of simulated catalogs of sources detectable by LISA. From these, we select a representative catalog and run both parameter estimation assuming a realistic LISA response as well model comparison capturing selection effects. Our results suggest that, at least within the context of the adopted models, future LISA observations can confidently constrain whether stars or gas are responsible for the binary hardening. We stress that accurate astrophysical modeling of the black-hole spins and the inclusion of subdominant emission modes in the adopted signal might be crucial to avoid systematic biases.

arXiv comment10 pages, 6 figures (accepted to Physical Review D on 2 December 2024)

References in corpus (45)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Array Programming with NumPy
• Planck 2013 results. XVI. Cosmological parameters
• The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background
• Search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
• Searching for the nano-Hertz stochastic gravitational wave background with the Chinese Pulsar Timing Array Data Release I
• The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array III. Search for gravitational wave signals
• Resolving Cosmic Structure Formation with the Millennium-II Simulation
• Science with the space-based interferometer LISA. V: Extreme mass-ratio inspirals
• Galaxy formation in the Planck Cosmology - I. Matching the observed evolution of star formation rates, colours and stellar masses
• The dynamical evolution of massive black hole binaries - I. Hardening in a fixed stellar background
• Science with the space-based interferometer eLISA. I: Supermassive black hole binaries
• Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
• Massive black hole binary mergers within sub-pc scale gas discs
• An Eccentric Circumbinary Accretion Disk and the Detection of Binary Massive Black Holes
• Cosmological black hole spin evolution by mergers and accretion
• IMRPhenomXHM: A multi-mode frequency-domain model for the gravitational wave signal from non-precessing black-hole binaries
• Alignment of the spins of supermassive black holes prior to coalescence
• Grand unification of AGN activity in the LambdaCDM cosmology
• The evolution of massive black holes and their spins in their galactic hosts
• The Quest for Dual and Binary Supermassive Black Holes: A Multi-Messenger View
• Predicting the direction of the final spin from the coalescence of two black holes
• Tearing up the disc: misaligned accretion on to a binary
• Linking the spin evolution of massive black holes to galaxy kinematics
• The final mass and spin of black hole mergers
• Black hole evolution: III. Statistical properties of mass growth and spin evolution using large-scale hydrodynamical cosmological simulations
• Dual black holes in merger remnants. II: spin evolution and gravitational recoil
• Massive black hole binaries: dynamical evolution and observational signatures
• One simulation to fit them all - changing the background parameters of a cosmological N-body simulation
• Nested Sampling with Normalising Flows for Gravitational-Wave Inference
• On the orientation and magnitude of the black hole spin in galactic nuclei
• Electromagnetic Counterparts to Massive Black Hole Mergers
• Massive black hole merger rates: the effect of kpc separation wandering and supernova feedback
• Massive black hole evolution models confronting the n-Hz amplitude of the stochastic gravitational wave background
• From galactic nuclei to the halo outskirts: tracing supermassive black holes across cosmic history and environments
• Massive black hole binaries in LISA: multimessenger prospects and electromagnetic counterparts
• Spin alignment and differential accretion in merging black hole binaries
• Gravitational wave emission from binary supermassive black holes
• Multi-flavour SMBH seeding and evolution in cosmological environments
• Black hole mergers: do gas discs lead to spin alignment?
• Glitch systematics on the observation of massive black-hole binaries with LISA
• On the LISA science performance in observations of short-lived signals from massive black hole binary coalescences
• The Bardeen-Petterson effect in accreting supermassive black-hole binaries: a systematic approach
• One to many: comparing single gravitational-wave events to astrophysical populations
• Calibrating signal-to-noise ratio detection thresholds using gravitational-wave catalogs

Cited by in corpus (5)

• The Science of the Einstein Telescope
• Identifying supermassive black hole recoil in elliptical galaxies
• Reconciling PTA and JWST and preparing for LISA with POMPOCO: a Parametrisation Of the Massive black hole POpulation for Comparison to Observations
• Milliarcsecond astrometric oscillations in active galactic nuclei as a precursor of multi-messenger gravitational wave events
• Assessing the performance of future space-based detectors: Astrophysical foregrounds and individual sources