Correlation of Theoretical Uncertainties in PDF Fits and Theoretical Uncertainties in Predictions

Abstract

We show how to account for correlations between theoretical uncertainties incorporated in parton distribution function (PDF) fits, and the theoretical uncertainties in the predictions made using these PDFs. We demonstrate by explicit calculations, both analytical and numerical, that these correlations can lead to corrections to the central values of the predictions, and reductions in both the PDF uncertainties and the theoretical uncertainties in the prediction. We illustrate our results with predictions for top production rapidity distributions and the Higgs total cross-section at the LHC, using the NLO NNPDF3.1 PDF set which incorporates missing higher order uncertainties. We conclude that the inclusion of correlations can increase both the accuracy and precision of predictions involving PDFs, particularly for processes with data already included in the PDF fit.

35 pages, 14 figures: final published version

References in corpus (6)

• Event generation with SHERPA 1.1
• Parton distributions from LHC, HERA, Tevatron and fixed target data: MSHT20 PDFs
• Parton Distributions in Nucleons and Nuclei
• An extensive survey of the estimation of uncertainties from missing higher orders in perturbative calculations
• Updated Higgs cross section at approximate N${}^3$LO
• Deuteron Uncertainties in the Determination of Proton PDFs

Cited by in corpus (19)

• Approximate N${}^3$LO Parton Distribution Functions with Theoretical Uncertainties: MSHT20aN${}^3$LO PDFs
• Parton distributions need representative sampling
• Parton distributions with scale uncertainties: a MonteCarlo sampling approach
• Fully charmed tetraquarks from LHC to FCC: Natural stability from fragmentation
• High-energy QCD dynamics from bottom flavor fragmentation at the Hi-Lumi LHC
• Bottomoniumlike states in proton collisions: Fragmentation and resummation
• Precision QCD Physics at the LHC
• Testing parton distribution functions with t-channel single-top-quark production
• Proton-PDF uncertainties in extracting nuclear PDFs from $W^{\pm }$ production in p+Pb collisions
• Fragmentation of fully heavy tetraquarks: The TQ4Q1.1 functions as a case study
• Unwinding the rare $\Omega$ sector: Fragmentation of fully charmed baryons from HL-LHC to FCC
• Pseudoscalar heavy-quarkonium hadroproduction from nonrelativistic fragmentation at NLL/NLO${}^{+}$
• Les Houches 2023 -- Physics at TeV Colliders: Report on the Standard Model Precision Wishlist
• Combination of aN${}^3$LO PDFs and implications for Higgs production cross-sections at the LHC
• Tetraquark-Jet Systems at the High-Luminosity LHC
• All-charm tetraquarks at hadron colliders: A high-precision fragmentation perspective
• Multimodal Fragmentation of All-Heavy Pentaquarks: Uncertainty-Aware Predictions for Hadron Colliders
• A global analysis of ALP-mediated multiboson production at the LHC
• Heavy-flavor multimodal fragmentation to $S$-wave pentacharms at next-generation hadron colliders