Should we still believe in constrained supersymmetry?

Abstract

We calculate Bayes factors to quantify how the feasibility of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM) has changed in the light of a series of observations. This is done in the Bayesian spirit where probability reflects a degree of belief in a proposition and Bayes' theorem tells us how to update it after acquiring new information. Our experimental baseline is the approximate knowledge that was available before LEP, and our comparison model is the Standard Model with a simple dark matter candidate. To quantify the amount by which experiments have altered our relative belief in the CMSSM since the baseline data we compute the Bayes factors that arise from learning in sequence the LEP Higgs constraints, the XENON100 dark matter constraints, the 2011 LHC supersymmetry search results, and the early 2012 LHC Higgs search results. We find that LEP and the LHC strongly shatter our trust in the CMSSM (with $M_0$ and $M_{1/2}$ below 2 TeV), reducing its posterior odds by a factor of approximately two orders of magnitude. This reduction is largely due to substantial Occam factors induced by the LEP and LHC Higgs searches.

38 pages, 14 figures; version as published in EPJC

References in corpus (22)

• Observation of a new particle in the search for the Standard Model Higgs boson with the ATLAS detector at the LHC
• Observation of a new boson at a mass of 125 GeV with the CMS experiment at the LHC
• micrOMEGAs2.0: a program to calculate the relic density of dark matter in a generic model
• Combined results of searches for the standard model Higgs boson in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
• Combined search for the Standard Model Higgs boson using up to 4.9 fb-1 of pp collision data at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC
• SuperIso v3.0: A program for calculating flavor physics observables in 2HDM and supersymmetry
• Hadronic Uncertainties in the Elastic Scattering of Supersymmetric Dark Matter
• SuperIso: A program for calculating the isospin asymmetry of B -> K* gamma in the MSSM
• Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson in the diphoton decay channel with 4.9 fb-1 of pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with ATLAS
• Higgs Sector in Extensions of the MSSM
• Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson in the decay channel H->ZZ(*)->4l with 4.8 fb-1 of pp collision data at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with ATLAS
• Bayesian Selection of sign(mu) within mSUGRA in Global Fits Including WMAP5 Results
• Frequentist Analysis of the Parameter Space of Minimal Supergravity
• A New Measure of Fine Tuning
• The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models
• A Coverage Study of the CMSSM Based on ATLAS Sensitivity Using Fast Neural Networks Techniques
• Introducing doubt in Bayesian model comparison
• Present and possible future implications for mSUGRA of the non-discovery of SUSY at the LHC
• Bayesian Study and Naturalness in MSSM Forecast for the LHC
• Predicting Supersymmetry
• Model Inference with Reference Priors
• Are BR(b->s gamma) and (g-2)_muon consistent within the Constrained MSSM?

Cited by in corpus (41)

• WIMP dark matter candidates and searches - current status and future prospects
• GAMBIT: The Global and Modular Beyond-the-Standard-Model Inference Tool
• A recipe for EFT uncertainty quantification in nuclear physics
• Killing the cMSSM softly
• ColliderBit: a GAMBIT module for the calculation of high-energy collider observables and likelihoods
• Dark matter and collider signatures of the MSSM
• What next for the CMSSM and the NUHM: Improved prospects for superpartner and dark matter detection
• Probing natural SUSY from stop pair production at the LHC
• Two-Loop Corrections to the Muon Magnetic Moment from Fermion/Sfermion Loops in the MSSM: Detailed Results
• Status of CMSSM in light of current LHC Run-2 and LUX data
• Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation
• The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models
• Two ultimate tests of constrained supersymmetry
• LUX likelihood and limits on spin-independent and spin-dependent WIMP couplings with LUXCalc
• Constraining resonant dark matter with combined LHC electroweakino searches
• GAMBIT and its Application in the Search for Physics Beyond the Standard Model
• CMSSM, naturalness and the "fine-tuning price" of the Very Large Hadron Collider
• Fine Tuning in the Constrained Exceptional Supersymmetric Standard Model
• Electroweak baryogenesis in the Z3-invariant NMSSM
• A comparison of optimisation algorithms for high-dimensional particle and astrophysics applications
• Higgs Boson Production and Decay: Effects from Light Third Generation and Vectorlike Matter
• Naturalness of the relaxion mechanism
• Probing the flavor violating scalar top quark signal at the LHC
• Stop and sbottom search using dileptonic $M_{T2}$ variable and boosted top technique at the LHC
• The current status of fine-tuning in supersymmetry
• LHC-7 supersymmetry search interpretation within the pMSSM
• Multi-lepton signatures at LHC from sneutrino dark matter
• Bayesian analysis and naturalness of (Next-to-)Minimal Supersymmetric Models
• Fixing the EW scale in supersymmetric models after the Higgs discovery
• A to Z of the Muon Anomalous Magnetic Moment in the MSSM with Pati-Salam at the GUT scale
• Anapole moment of the lightest neutralino in the cMSSM
• The dark side of the $\mu$: on multiple solutions to renormalisation group equations, and why the CMSSM is not necessarily being ruled out
• A simple technique for combining simplified models and its application to direct stop production
• Bayesian naturalness, simplicity, and testability applied to the $B-L$ MSSM GUT
• Investigating Multiple Solutions in the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model
• New techniques for chargino-neutralino detection at LHC
• An Information Theoretic Exploration of Constrained MSSM
• Theoretical Uncertainties in the Calculation of Supersymmetric Dark Matter Observables
• Explaining the Fermi Galactic Centre Excess in the CMSSM
• Precise interpretations of traditional fine-tuning measures
• Investigating non-minimal flavour-violating CMSSM in the light of Higgs-Boson mass using information theory