Accelerating exoplanet climate modelling: A machine learning approach to complement 3D GCM grid simulations

Abstract

With the development of ever-improving telescopes capable of observing exoplanet atmospheres in greater detail and number, there is a growing demand for enhanced 3D climate models to support and help interpret observational data from space missions like CHEOPS, TESS, JWST, PLATO, and Ariel. However, the computationally intensive and time-consuming nature of general circulation models (GCMs) poses significant challenges in simulating a wide range of exoplanetary atmospheres. This study aims to determine whether machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to predict the 3D temperature and wind structure of arbitrary tidally-locked gaseous exoplanets in a range of planetary parameters. A new 3D GCM grid with 60 inflated hot Jupiters orbiting A, F, G, K, and M-type host stars modelled with Exorad has been introduced. A dense neural network (DNN) and a decision tree algorithm (XGBoost) are trained on this grid to predict local gas temperatures along with horizontal and vertical winds. To ensure the reliability and quality of the ML model predictions, WASP-121 b, HATS-42 b, NGTS-17 b, WASP-23 b, and NGTS-1 b-like planets, which are all targets for PLATO observation, are selected and modelled with ExoRad and the two ML methods as test cases. The DNN predictions for the gas temperatures are to such a degree that the calculated spectra agree within 32 ppm for all but one planet, for which only one single HCN feature reaches a 100 ppm difference. The developed ML emulators can reliably predict the complete 3D temperature field of an inflated warm to ultra-hot tidally locked Jupiter around A to M-type host stars. It provides a fast tool to complement and extend traditional GCM grids for exoplanet ensemble studies. The quality of the predictions is such that no or minimal effects on the gas phase chemistry, hence on the cloud formation and transmission spectra, are to be expected.

References in corpus (52)

• XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System
• The chemical composition of the Sun
• Intrinsic Colors, Temperatures, and Bolometric Corrections of Pre-Main Sequence Stars
• petitRADTRANS: a Python radiative transfer package for exoplanet characterization and retrieval
• The ExoMol database: molecular line lists for exoplanet and other hot atmospheres
• Equatorial superrotation on tidally locked exoplanets
• The Statistics of Albedo and Heat Recirculation on Hot Exoplanets
• PandExo: A Community Tool for Transiting Exoplanet Science with JWST & HST
• Transitions in the cloud composition of hot Jupiters
• Equilibrium chemistry down to 100 K - Impact of silicates and phyllosilicates on carbon/oxygen ratio
• The 2020 release of the ExoMol database: molecular line lists for exoplanet and other hot atmospheres
• Atmospheric circulation of tidally locked exoplanets: a suite of benchmark tests for dynamical solvers
• The Influence of Non-Uniform Cloud Cover on Transit Transmission Spectra
• The atmospheric circulation of a nine-hot Jupiter sample: Probing circulation and chemistry over a wide phase space
• How drifting and evaporating pebbles shape giant planets I: Heavy element content and atmospheric C/O
• Dynamic mineral clouds on HD 189733b I. 3D RHD with kinetic, non-equilibrium cloud formation
• New study of the line profiles of sodium perturbed by H2
• A broadband thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b
• The Intrinsic Temperature and Radiative-Convective Boundary Depth in the Atmospheres of Hot Jupiters
• Simulating the cloudy atmospheres of HD 209458 b and HD 189733 b with the 3D Met Office Unified Model
• The mineral clouds on HD 209458b and HD189733b
• Implications of three-dimensional chemical transport in hot Jupiter atmospheres: results from a consistently coupled chemistry-radiation-hydrodynamics model
• Vertical Tracer Mixing in Hot Jupiter Atmospheres
• Connecting the dots II: Phase changes in the climate dynamics of tidally locked terrestrial exoplanets
• Equatorial anti-rotating day side wind flow in WASP-43b elicited by deep wind jets?
• Spectroscopy across the brown dwarf/planetary mass boundary - I. Near-infrared JHK spectra
• Modelling the local and global cloud formation on HD 189733b
• A transition between the hot and the ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres
• A Benchmark JWST Near-Infrared Spectrum for the Exoplanet WASP-39b
• A Library of Self-Consistent Simulated Exoplanet Atmospheres
• Grid of Pseudo-2D Chemistry Models for Tidally-Locked Exoplanets. I. The Role of Vertical and Horizontal Mixing
• The Limits of the Primitive Equations of Dynamics for Warm, Slowly Rotating Small Neptunes and Super Earths
• Grid of pseudo-2D chemistry models for tidally locked exoplanets -- II. The role of photochemistry
• Exoplanet weather and climate regimes with clouds and thermal ionospheres: A model grid study in support of large-scale observational campaigns
• Is the atmosphere of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121b variable?
• Toward Robust Corrections for Stellar Contamination in JWST Exoplanet Transmission Spectra
• Evidence for Morning-to-Evening Limb Asymmetry on the Cool Low-Density Exoplanet WASP-107b
• The PLATO field selection process. II. Characterization of LOPS2, the first long-pointing field
• Understanding the atmospheric properties and chemical composition of the ultra-hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b II. Mapping the effects of gas kinetics
• Inferring asymmetric limb cloudiness on exoplanets from transit light curves
• No evidence for radius inflation in hot Jupiters from vertical advection of heat
• Titanium chemistry of WASP-121 b with ESPRESSO in 4-UT mode
• Knobs and dials of retrieving JWST transmission spectra. I. The importance of p-T profile complexity
• Direct Imaging discovery of a second planet candidate around the possibly transiting planet host CVSO 30
• Atmospheric Characterization via Broadband Color Filters on the PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) Mission
• Dark skies of the slightly eccentric WASP-18 b from its optical-to-infrared dayside emission
• Under the magnifying glass: A combined 3D model applied to cloudy warm Saturn type exoplanets around M-dwarfs
• The $\text{MSG}$ model for cloudy substellar atmospheres: A grid of self-consistent substellar atmosphere models with microphysical cloud formation
• Examining NHD vs QHD in the GCM THOR with non-grey radiative transfer for the hot Jupiter regime
• Kinetic and photochemical disequilibrium in the potentially carbon-rich atmosphere of the warm-Jupiter WASP-69b
• The CHEOPS view on the climate of WASP-3 b
• A grid of self-consistent MSG (MARCS-StaticWeather-GGchem) cool stellar, sub-stellar, and exoplanetary model atmospheres

Cited by in corpus (1)

• Inhomogeneous magnetic coupling in exoplanets: the stop & go of WASP-18 b's atmospheric flows