Assessing the Role of Intrinsic Variability in Black Hole Parameter Inference using Multi-Epoch EHT Data

Abstract

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of M87* provide a means of constraining parameters of both the black hole and its surrounding plasma. However, intrinsic variability of the emitting material introduces a major source of systematic uncertainty, complicating parameter inference. The precise origin and structure of this variability remain uncertain, and previous studies have largely relied on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations to estimate its effects. Here, we fit a semi-analytic, dual-cone model of the emitting plasma to multiple years of EHT observations to empirically assess the impact of intrinsic variability and improved array coverage on key measurements including the black hole mass-to-distance ratio, spin, and viewing inclination. Despite substantial differences in the images of the two epochs, we find that the inferred mass-to-distance ratio remains stable and mutually consistent. The black hole spin is unconstrained for both observations, despite the improved baseline coverage in 2018. The inferred position angle and inclination of the black hole spin axis are discrepant between the two years, suggesting that variability and model misspecification contribute significantly to the total error budget for these quantities. Our findings highlight both the promise and challenges of multi-epoch EHT observations: while they can refine parameter constraints, they also reveal the limitations of simple parametric models in capturing the full complexity of the source. Our analysis -- the first to fit semi-analytic emission models to 2018 EHT observations -- underscores the importance of systematic uncertainty quantification from intrinsic variability in future high-resolution imaging studies of black hole environments and the role of repeated observations in quantifying these uncertainties.

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