Bayesian Inference Constraints on Astrophysical Production of Ultra-high Energy Cosmic Rays and Cosmogenic Neutrino Flux Predictions

Abstract

A flux of extra-terrestrial neutrinos at energies $\gg 10^{15}$ eV has the potential to serve as a cosmological probe of the high-energy universe as well as tests of fundamental particle interactions. Cosmogenic neutrinos, produced from the interactions of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with cosmic photon backgrounds, have been regarded as a guaranteed flux. However, the expected neutrino flux depends on the composition of UHECRs at the highest energies; heavier nuclei result in lower neutrino fluxes compared to lighter nuclei and protons. The objective of this study is to estimate the range of cosmogenic neutrino spectra consistent with recent cosmic-ray spectral and compositional data using a fully inferential Bayesian approach. The study assumes a range of source distributions consistent with astrophysical sources, the flux and composition of cosmic rays, and detector systematic uncertainties. The technique applied to this study is the use of an affine-invariant Markov Chain Monte Carlo, which is an effective Bayesian inference tool for characterizing multi-dimensional parameter spaces and their correlations.

28 pages, 6 figures

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• Astrophysics Uniquely Enabled by Observations of High-Energy Cosmic Neutrinos
• Search for Extremely-High-Energy Neutrinos and First Constraints on the Ultrahigh-Energy Cosmic-Ray Proton Fraction with IceCube
• Prospects for High-Elevation Radio Detection of >100 PeV Tau Neutrinos
• An Andean Deep-Valley Detector for High-Energy Tau Neutrinos
• Secondary neutrino and gamma-ray fluxes from SimProp and CRPropa
• Detector Requirements for Model-Independent Measurements of Ultrahigh Energy Neutrino Cross Sections
• Cosmic neutrino flux and spin flavor oscillations in intergalactic medium
• Energetics of ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray nuclei
• Near-future discovery of point sources of ultra-high-energy neutrinos
• Tau Appearance from High-Energy Neutrino Interactions
• Quantum gravity phenomenology at the dawn of the multi-messenger era -- A review
• High-Energy Neutrino Emission from Espresso-Reaccelerated Ions in Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei
• The Next-Generation Radio Neutrino Observatory -- Multi-Messenger Neutrino Astrophysics at Extreme Energies
• Two-detector flavor sensitivity to ultra-high-energy cosmic neutrinos
• Impact of the finite life-time of UHECR sources
• Cosmogenic neutrinos as probes of new physics
• Pushing the Energy and Cosmic Frontiers with High-Energy Astrophysical Neutrinos