dart_board: Binary Population Synthesis with Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Abstract

By employing Monte Carlo random sampling, traditional binary population synthesis (BPS) offers a substantial improvement in efficiency over brute force, grid-based studies. Even so, BPS models typically require a large number of simulation realizations, a computationally expensive endeavor, to generate statistically robust results. Recent advances in statistical methods have led us to revisit the traditional approach to BPS. In this work we describe our publicly available code dart_board which combines rapid binary evolution codes, typically used in traditional BPS, with modern Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. dart_board takes a novel approach that treats the initial binary parameters and the supernova kick vector as model parameters. This formulation has several advantages, including the ability to model either populations of systems or individual binaries, the natural inclusion of observational uncertainties, and the flexible addition of new constraints which are problematic to include using traditional BPS. After testing our code with mock systems, we demonstrate the flexibility of dart_board by applying it to three examples: (i) a generic population of high mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs), (ii) the population of HMXBs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) in which the spatially resolved star formation history is used as a prior, and (iii) one particular HMXB in the LMC, Swift J0513.4-6547, in which we include observations of the system's component masses and orbital period. Although this work focuses on HMXBs, dart_board can be applied to a variety of stellar binaries including the recent detections by gravitational wave observatories of merging compact object binaries.

Accepted for publication in ApJS, 39 pages, 21 figures, 5 tables

References in corpus (25)

• The NumPy array: a structure for efficient numerical computation
• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• The Astropy Project: Building an inclusive, open-science project and status of the v2.0 core package
• GW170814: A Three-Detector Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Coalescence
• Binary interaction dominates the evolution of massive stars
• Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis Version 2.1: construction, observational verification and new results
• An eclipsing binary distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud accurate to 2 per cent
• Catalogue of high-mass X-ray binaries in the Galaxy ($4^{th}$ edition)
• Luminous Blue Variables are Antisocial: Their Isolation Implies that they are Kicked Mass Gainers in Binary Evolution
• The impact of companions on stellar evolution
• Photometric Redshift with Bayesian Priors on Physical Properties of Galaxies
• Ultra-luminous X-ray sources and neutron-star-black-hole mergers from very massive close binaries at low metallicity
• Explaining LIGO's observations via isolated binary evolution with natal kicks
• Spectral distribution of Be/X-ray binaries in the Small Magellanic Cloud
• Metallicity dependence of HMXB populations
• Distribution of High-Mass X-ray Binaries in the Milky Way
• Models for Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries in the Elliptical Galaxies NGC3379 and NGC4278: Comparison with Observations
• On the Formation of Ultraluminous X-ray Sources with Neutron Star Accretors: the Case of M82 X-2
• Evolutionary Channels for the Formation of Double Neutron Stars
• Transient Low-Mass X-Ray Binary Populations in Elliptical Galaxies NGC 3379 and NGC 4278
• High Mass X-ray Binaries and Recent Star Formation History of the Small Magellanic Cloud
• EXTraS discovery of two pulsators in the direction of the LMC: a Be/X-ray binary pulsar in the LMC and a candidate double-degenerate polar in the foreground
• The Mass Distribution of Companions to Low-Mass White Dwarfs
• Deep Chandra Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud. II. Timing Analysis of X-ray Pulsars
• Swift J0513.4-6547 = LXP 27.2 : a new Be/X-ray binary system in the Large Magellanic Cloud

Cited by in corpus (19)

• COSMIC Variance in Binary Population Synthesis
• Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations I: Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers
• Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations
• Binary Population Synthesis
• Properties of OB star-black hole systems derived from detailed binary evolution models
• Multiple Stellar Evolution: a population synthesis algorithm to model the stellar, binary, and dynamical evolution of multiple-star systems
• Binary Stars in the New Millennium
• STROOPWAFEL: Simulating rare outcomes from astrophysical populations, with application to gravitational-wave sources
• Double Neutron Star Formation: Merger Times, Systemic Velocities, and Travel Distances
• Deep Chandra survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud. III. Formation efficiency of High-Mass X-ray binaries
• Stellar Core-Merger-Induced Collapse: New Formation Pathways for Black Holes, Thorne-$\dot{\mathrm{Z}}$ytkow objects, Magnetars and Superluminous Supernovae
• LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's Oldest Black Holes: Probing star formation at cosmic noon with GWTC-3
• Multiwavelength Characterization of the High Mass X-ray Binary Population of M31
• Backward Population Synthesis: Mapping the Evolutionary History of Gravitational-Wave Progenitors
• Targeted modeling of GW150914's binary black hole source with dart_board
• Active Learning for Computationally Efficient Distribution of Binary Evolution Simulations
• Reconstructing post-common envelope white dwarf+main sequence binary histories through inverse population synthesis techniques
• Single-event likelihood of star cluster properties with LIGO-Virgo-Kagra binary black hole observations
• Simulation-calibrated Bayesian inference for progenitor properties of the microquasar SS 433