Solar and nuclear physics uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation

Abstract

Recent data released by the AMS experiment on the primary spectra and secondary-to-primary ratios in cosmic rays (CRs) can pose tight constraints to astrophysical models of CR acceleration and transport in the Galaxy, thereby providing a robust baseline of the astrophysical background for dark matter search via antimatter. However, models of CR propagation are affected by other important sources of uncertainties, notably from solar modulation and nuclear fragmentation, that cannot be improved with the sole use of the AMS data. The present work is aimed at assessing these uncertainties and their relevance in the interpretation of the new AMS data on the boron-to-carbon (B/C) ratio. Uncertainties from solar modulation are estimated using improved models of CR transport in the Heliosphere constrained against various type of measurements: monthly-resolved CR data collected by balloon-born or space missions, interstellar flux data from the Voyager-1 spacecraft, and counting rates from ground-based neutron monitor detectors. Uncertainties from nuclear fragmentation are estimated using semiempirical cross-section formulae constrained by measurements on isotopically-resolved and charge-changing reactions. We found that a proper data-driven treatment of solar modulation can guarantee the desired level of precision, in comparison with the improved accuracy of the recent data on the B/C ratio. On the other hand, nuclear uncertainties represent a serious limiting factor over a wide energy range. We therefore stress the need for establishing a dedicated program of cross-section measurements at the $\mathcal{O}$(100 GeV) energy scale.

15 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables - matches published version

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• Numerical modeling of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere and interpretation of the proton-to-helium ratio in Solar Cycle 24
• Intermediate mass and heavy Galactic cosmic-ray nuclei: the case of new AMS-02 measurements
• Temporal evolution and rigidity dependence of the solar modulation lag of Galactic cosmic rays
• Cosmic-ray antiprotons in the AMS-02 era: A sensitive probe of dark matter
• Dark Matter Decaying into Millicharged Particles as a Solution to AMS 02 Positron Excess
• Can the Production Cross-Section Uncertainties Explain the Cosmic Fluorine Anomaly?
• Local interstellar spectra and solar modulation of cosmic ray proton and Helium
• Weighing the Local Interstellar Medium using Gamma Rays and Dust
• Solar modulation of AMS-02 daily proton and Helium fluxes with modified force field approximation models
• Possible detection of gamma rays from Epsilon Eridani
• Data driven analysis of cosmic rays in the heliosphere: diffusion of cosmic protons
• Propagation Times and Energy Losses of Cosmic Protons and Antiprotons in Interplanetary Space
• Reanalysis of the Systematic Uncertainties in Cosmic-Ray Antiproton Flux
• Cosmic-ray deuteron excess from a primary component
• New insights from cross-correlation studies between Solar activity and Cosmic-ray fluxes
• Data driven analysis of Galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere: diffusion of cosmic protons and nuclei
• A web application for monitoring cosmic rays and solar activity
• Combined analyses of the antiproton production from cosmic-ray interactions and its possible dark matter origin