An MCMC approach to extracting the global 21-cm signal during the cosmic dawn from sky-averaged radio observations

Abstract

Efforts are being made to observe the 21-cm signal from the 'cosmic dawn' using sky-averaged observations with individual radio dipoles. In this paper, we develop a model of the observations accounting for the 21-cm signal, foregrounds, and several major instrumental effects. Given this model, we apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to demonstrate the ability of these instruments to separate the 21-cm signal from foregrounds and quantify their ability to constrain properties of the first galaxies. For concreteness, we investigate observations between 40 and 120 MHz with the proposed DARE mission in lunar orbit, showing its potential for science return.

16 pages, 14 figures; accepted by MNRAS; minor edits to match accepted version

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• Cosmic microwave background constraints on the duration and timing of reionization from the South Pole Telescope
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• Probing the First Stars and Black Holes in the Early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)
• BIGHORNS - Broadband Instrument for Global HydrOgen ReioNisation Signal
• Bayesian constraints on the global 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn
• The Global History of Reionisation
• Decoding the X-ray Properties of Pre-Reionization Era Sources
• SARAS: a precision system for measurement of the Cosmic Radio Background and signatures from the Epoch of Reionization
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• Emulation of reionization simulations for Bayesian inference of astrophysics parameters using neural networks
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• A Space-Based Observational Strategy for Characterizing the First Stars and Galaxies Using the Redshifted 21-cm Global Spectrum
• Quantifying Ionospheric Effects on Global 21-cm Observations
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• Measuring the Cosmological 21 cm Monopole with an Interferometer
• On the contamination of the global 21~cm signal from polarized foregrounds
• Interpreting the Global 21-cm Signal from High Redshifts. I. Model Independent Constraints
• Parametrizations of the global 21-cm signal and parameter estimation from single-dipole experiments
• Radio astronomy with the Lunar Lander: opening up the last unexplored frequency regime
• Background reionization history from omniscopes
• Assessment of the Projection-induced Polarimetry Technique for Constraining the Foreground Spectrum in Global 21 cm Cosmology
• Antenna beam characterisation for the global 21cm experiment LEDA and its impact on signal model parameter reconstruction
• Lunar Orbit Measurement of Cosmic Dawn 21 cm Global Spectrum
• The impact of the ionosphere on ground-based detection of the global Epoch of Reionisation signal
• Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky: LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
• Studying Cosmic Dawn using redshifted HI 21-cm signal: A brief review
• Selection between foreground models for global 21-cm experiments
• The imprint of the cosmic supermassive black hole growth history on the 21 cm background radiation
• Cosmic Variance of the 21-cm Global Signal
• A General Bayesian Framework to Account for Foreground Map Errors in Global 21-cm Experiments
• The Impact of Realistic Foreground and Instrument Models on 21cm Epoch of Reionization Experiments
• Extracting the Global 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization in the presence of Foreground and Ionosphere
• 21cm Global Signal Extraction: Extracting the 21cm Global Signal using Artificial Neural Networks
• A polarimetric approach for constraining the dynamic foreground spectrum for cosmological global 21-cm measurements
• Joint constraints on reionization: a framework for combining the global 21cm signal and the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect
• Primordial Magnetic Fields in Light of Dark Ages Global 21-cm Signal
• Measurements of the global 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn
• Direct Parameter Inference from Global EoR Signal with Bayesian Statistics
• Redshifted 21-cm emission signal from the halos in Dark Ages
• Improvements to the Search for Cosmic Dawn Using the Long Wavelength Array
• Comparing sampling techniques to chart parameter space of 21 cm Global signal with Artificial Neural Networks
• External Calibrator in Global Signal Experiment for Detection of the Epoch of Reionization
• Exploring Machine Learning Regression Models for Advancing Foreground Mitigation and Global 21cm Signal Parameter Extraction
• APES: Approximate Posterior Ensemble Sampler
• Optimizing Foreground Modelling for Global 21cm Cosmology with GPU-Accelerated Nested Sampling