The XMM Cluster Survey: Forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

Abstract

We forecast the constraints on the values of sigma_8, Omega_m, and cluster scaling relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Lambda-CDM Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity-temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only (T,z) self-calibration, we expect to measure Omega_m to +-0.03 (and Omega_Lambda to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and sigma_8 to +-0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity-temperature relation to +-6 and +-13 per cent (at 1sigma) respectively in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity-temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2sigma or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new `smoothed ML' estimate of expected constraints.

28 pages, 17 figures. Revised version, as accepted for publication in MNRAS. High-resolution figures available at http://xcs-home.org (under "Publications")

References in corpus (34)

• Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Three Year Results: Implications for Cosmology
• Effects of Galaxy Formation on Thermodynamics of the Intracluster Medium
• Improved constraints on dark energy from Chandra X-ray observations of the largest relaxed galaxy clusters
• A New Robust Low-Scatter X-ray Mass Indicator for Clusters of Galaxies
• The halo mass function from the dark ages through the present day
• The Clustering of Luminous Red Galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Imaging Data
• Images, structural properties and metal abundances of galaxy clusters observed with Chandra ACIS-I at 0.1<z<1.3
• The 400 square degrees ROSAT PSPC galaxy cluster survey: Catalog and statistical calibration
• The XMM Cluster Survey: A Massive Galaxy Cluster at z=1.45
• The XMM-LSS survey: the Class 1 cluster sample over the initial 5 square degrees and its cosmological modelling
• New constraints on dark energy from the observed growth of the most X-ray luminous galaxy clusters
• Cosmological baryonic and matter densities from 600,000 SDSS Luminous Red Galaxies with photometric redshifts
• The Lx-Yx Relation: Using Galaxy Cluster X-Ray Luminosity as a Robust, Low Scatter Mass Proxy
• Measuring the effective complexity of cosmological models
• The X-Ray Luminosity--Mass Relation for Local Clusters of Galaxies
• Cosmological Constraints from the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey
• X-ray properties in massive galaxy clusters: XMM-Newton observations of the REFLEX-DXL sample
• The evolution of clusters in the CLEF cosmological simulation: X-ray structural and scaling properties
• Photometric Redshift Requirements for Self-Calibration of Cluster Dark Energy Studies
• Chandra X-ray Observations of the 0.6 < z < 1.1 Red-Sequence Cluster Survey Sample
• The XMM Cluster Survey: The Dynamical State of XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 at z=1.457
• Likelihood Methods for Cluster Dark Energy Surveys
• Galaxy Cluster Correlation Function to z ~ 1.5 in the IRAC Shallow Cluster Survey
• Cluster mass functions in the quintessential Universe
• High redshift X-ray galaxy clusters. II. The L_X-T relationship revisited
• A phenomenological model of galaxy clusters
• Effects of Selection and Covariance on X-ray Scaling Relations of Galaxy Clusters
• Breaking Cosmological Degeneracies in Galaxy Cluster Surveys with a Physical Model of Cluster Structure
• Cosmology with the Planck cluster sample
• X-ray observations of Clusters of Galaxies
• An X-ray Galaxy Cluster Survey for Investigations of Dark Energy
• Likelihood Functions for Galaxy Cluster Surveys
• The XMM-LSS cluster sample and its cosmological applications. Prospects for the XMM next decade
• Sensitivity and Insensitivity of Galaxy Cluster Surveys to New Physics

Cited by in corpus (48)

• The Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey: V. Improving the Dark Energy Constraints Above z>1 and Building an Early-Type-Hosted Supernova Sample
• Cosmological Parameters from Observations of Galaxy Clusters
• The Observed Growth of Massive Galaxy Clusters I: Statistical Methods and Cosmological Constraints
• The Observed Growth of Massive Galaxy Clusters II: X-ray Scaling Relations
• The XMM Cluster Survey: Optical analysis methodology and the first data release
• Early assembly of the most massive galaxies
• The XXL Survey. II. The bright cluster sample: catalogue and luminosity function
• The XMM Cluster Survey: Active Galactic Nuclei and Starburst Galaxies in XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 at z=1.46
• The XMM Cluster Survey: The build up of stellar mass in Brightest Cluster Galaxies at high redshift
• The importance of major mergers in the build up of stellar mass in brightest cluster galaxies at z=1
• The XMM Cluster Survey: Testing chameleon gravity using the profiles of clusters
• The evolution of cool-core clusters
• The XMM Cluster Survey: X-ray analysis methodology
• The XMM Cluster Survey: The interplay between the brightest cluster galaxy and the intra-cluster medium via AGN feedback
• An Intensive HST Survey for z>1 Supernovae by Targeting Galaxy Clusters
• The cosmological analysis of X-ray cluster surveys: II- Application of the CR-HR method to the XMM archive
• Precision cosmology with a wide area XMM cluster survey
• Optimal capture of non-Gaussianity in weak lensing surveys: power spectrum, bispectrum and halo counts
• Weak lensing analysis of RXC J2248.7-4431
• Rapid early coeval star formation and assembly of the most massive galaxies in the universe
• Cluster-Void Degeneracy Breaking: Dark Energy, Planck and the Largest Cluster & Void
• Impact of baryons on the cluster mass function and cosmological parameter determination
• Sensitivity of galaxy cluster dark energy constraints to halo modeling uncertainties
• Constraining Dark Energy with Clusters: Complementarity with Other Probes
• Cluster-void degeneracy breaking: Neutrino properties and dark energy
• Wide-angle tail galaxies in ATLAS
• The cosmological analysis of X-ray cluster surveys: I- A new method for interpreting number counts
• Strong Gravitational Lensing by the Super-massive cD Galaxy in Abell 3827
• The XMM Cluster Survey: Evidence for energy injection at high redshift from evolution of the X-ray luminosity-temperature relation
• Annealing a Follow-up Program: Improvement of the Dark Energy Figure of Merit for Optical Galaxy Cluster Surveys
• Combining Semi-analytic Models with Simulations of Galaxy Clusters: the Need for Heating from Active Galactic Nuclei
• The X-ray luminosity-temperature relation of a complete sample of low-mass galaxy clusters
• Optimizing weak lensing mass estimates for cluster profile uncertainty
• Cluster-Void Degeneracy Breaking: Modified Gravity in the Balance
• The XMM Cluster Survey analysis of the SDSS DR8 redMaPPer Catalogue: Implications for scatter, selection bias, and isotropy in cluster scaling relations
• Bubble mapping with the Square Kilometer Array -- I. Detecting galaxies with Euclid, JWST, WFIRST and ELT within ionized bubbles in the intergalactic medium at z>6
• Testing Emergent Gravity on Galaxy Cluster Scales
• Planck and reionization history: a model selection view
• The Ratio of Luminous to Faint Red Sequence Galaxies in X-Ray and Optically Selected Low-Redshift Clusters
• Heating and enriching the intracluster medium
• Biases on cosmological parameter estimators from galaxy cluster number counts
• The XMM Cluster Survey: evolution of the velocity dispersion -- temperature relation over half a Hubble time
• Cosmology with Galaxy Clusters: Systematic Effects in the Halo Mass Function
• Biased cosmological parameter estimation with galaxy cluster counts in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianities
• Environmental dependence of X-ray and optical properties of galaxy clusters
• The XMM Cluster Survey: The Halo Occupation Number of BOSS galaxies in X-ray clusters
• The XMM Cluster Survey: Predicted overlap with the Planck Cluster Catalogue
• Cosmological constraints from Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster counts: an approach to account for missing redshifts