Does the h-index have predictive power?

Abstract

Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h-index compared to other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h-index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h-index.

Sect. V added on combining h and N_c, with new Fig. 11. Other minor changes. To be published in PNAS

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• An index to quantify an individual's scientific research output

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