The predictability of the Hirsch index evolution
arXiv:1307.5964
Abstract
The h-index can be used as a predictor of itself. However, the evolution of the h-index with time is shown in the present investigation to be dominated for several years by citations to previous publications rather than by new scientific achievements. This inert behaviour of the h-index raises questions, whether the h-index can be used profitably in academic appointment processes or for the allocation of research resources.
6 pages, 3 figures, to be published in the Proceedings of 18th Int. Conf. Science and Technology Indicators (STI2013), Berlin