How relevant is the predictive power of the h-index? A case study of the time-dependent Hirsch index
arXiv:1301.2060 · doi:10.1016/j.joi.2013.01.001
Abstract
The h-index has been shown to have predictive power. Here I report results of an empirical study showing that the increase of the h-index with time often depends for a long time on citations to rather old publications. This inert behavior of the h-index means that it is difficult to use it as a measure for predicting future scientific output.
6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Informetrics