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Towards a Fully Automated Pipeline for Short-Term Forecasting of In Situ Coronal Mass Ejection Magnetic Field Structure
Hannah T. Rüdisser, Emma E. Davies, Ute V. Amerstorfer +6
We present an automated pipeline for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ det…
Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind In Situ Data
Hannah T. Rüdisser, Andreas Windisch, Ute V. Amerstorfer +4
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are one of the main drivers for space weather disturbances. In the past, different approaches have been used to automatically detect e…
Writhed Analytical Magnetic Flux Rope Model
Andreas J. Weiss, Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, Christian Möstl +3
Observations of magnetic clouds, within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), are often well described by flux rope models. Most of these assume either a cylindrical or to…
Multipoint interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and STEREO-A
C. Möstl, A. J. Weiss, M. A. Reiss +12
We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (Sol…
Drag-based CME modeling with heliospheric images incorporating frontal deformation: ELEvoHI 2.0
J. Hinterreiter, T. Amerstorfer, M. Temmer +7
The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forec…
Predicting CMEs using ELEvoHI with STEREO-HI beacon data
Maike Bauer, Tanja Amerstorfer, Jürgen Hinterreiter +6
Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long-standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we…
The Observational Uncertainty of Coronal Hole Boundaries in Automated Detection Schemes
Martin A. Reiss, Karin Muglach, Christian Möstl +16
Coronal holes are the observational manifestation of the solar magnetic field open to the heliosphere and are of pivotal importance for our understanding of the origin and accelera…
Multi point analysis of coronal mass ejection flux ropes using combined data from Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo and Wind
A. J. Weiss, C. Moestl, E. E. Davies +15
The recent launch of Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo opened a brief window in which these two spacecraft were positioned in a constellation that allows for the detailed sampling of a…
Why are ELEvoHI CME arrival predictions different if based on STEREO-A or STEREO-B heliospheric imager observations?
Jürgen Hinterreiter, Tanja Amerstorfer, Martin A. Reiss +9
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the pred…
Analysis of coronal mass ejection flux rope signatures using 3DCORE and approximate Bayesian Computation
Andreas J. Weiss, Christian Möstl, Tanja Amerstorfer +5
We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an Approximate Bayesian Computation (…
Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations
Christian Möstl, Andreas J. Weiss, Rachel L. Bailey +7
The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a part…
Prediction of Dst during solar minimum using in situ measurements at L5
R. L. Bailey, C. Möstl, M. A. Reiss +6
Geomagnetic storms resulting from high-speed streams can have significant negative impacts on modern infrastructure due to complex interactions between the solar wind and geomagnet…
Coronal hole evolution from multi-viewpoint data as input for a STEREO solar wind speed persistence model
M. Temmer, J. Hinterreiter, M. A. Reiss
We present a concept study of a solar wind forecasting method for Earth, based on persistence modeling from STEREO in-situ measurements combined with multi-viewpoint EUV observatio…
Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers
T. Amerstorfer, C. Möstl, P. Hess +5
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagati…
Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
C. Möstl, A. Isavnin, P. D. Boakes +18
We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to as…
Characteristics of Low-Latitude Coronal Holes near the Maximum of Solar cycle 24
S. J. Hofmeister, A. Veronig, M. A. Reiss +4
We investigate the statistics of 288 low-latitude coronal holes extracted from SDO/AIA-193 filtergrams over the time range 2011/01/01 to 2013/12/31. We analyse the distribution of…
Preconditioning of interplanetary space due to transient CME disturbances
Manuela Temmer, Martin A. Reiss, Ljubomir Nikolic +2
Interplanetary space is characteristically structured mainly by high-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes and transient disturbances such as coronal mass ejections…
Improvements on coronal hole detection in SDO/AIA images using supervised classification
Martin A. Reiss, Stefan J. Hofmeister, Ruben De Visscher +5
We demonstrate the use of machine learning algorithms in combination with segmentation techniques in order to distinguish coronal holes and filaments in SDO/AIA EUV images of the S…
Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars
Christian Möstl, Tanja Rollett, Rudy A. Frahm +15
The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a la…
Identification of coronal holes and filament channels in SDO/AIA 193Å images via geometrical classification methods
M. Reiss, M. Temmer, T. Rotter +2
In this study, we describe and evaluate shape measures for distinguishing between coronal holes and filament channels as observed in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) images of the Sun. Fo…