Analysis of coronal mass ejection flux rope signatures using 3DCORE and approximate Bayesian Computation

Abstract

We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm that is used for fitting the model to in situ magnetic field measurements. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere, is influenced by a simplified interaction with the solar wind environment, and carries along an embedded analytical magnetic field. The improved 3DCORE implementation allows us to generate extremely large ensemble simulations which we then use to find global best-fit model parameters using an ABC sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm. The usage of this algorithm, under some basic assumptions on the uncertainty of the magnetic field measurements, allows us to furthermore generate estimates on the uncertainty of model parameters using only a single in situ observation. We apply our model to synthetically generated measurements to prove the validity of our implementation for the fitting procedure. We also present a brief analysis, within the scope of our model, of an event captured by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) shortly after its first fly-by of the Sun on 2018 November 12 at 0.25 AU. The presented toolset is also easily extendable to the analysis of events captured by multiple spacecraft and will therefore facilitate future multi-point studies.

arXiv comment18 pages, 11 figures, in press at ApJS, accepted 10 November 2020

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Cited by in corpus (13)

• Parker Solar Probe: Four Years of Discoveries at Solar Cycle Minimum
• In situ multi-spacecraft and remote imaging observations of the first CME detected by Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo
• Multipoint interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and STEREO-A
• Multi point analysis of coronal mass ejection flux ropes using combined data from Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo and Wind
• Solar origins of a strong stealth CME detected by Solar Orbiter
• Coronal mass ejection deformation at 0.1 au observed by WISPR
• Machine learning for predicting the Bz magnetic field component from upstream in situ observations of solar coronal mass ejections
• Exploring the radial evolution of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections using EUHFORIA
• The PAU Survey: Measurement of Narrow-band galaxy properties with Approximate Bayesian Computation
• Forecasting GICs and geoelectric fields from solar wind data using LSTMs: application in Austria
• Radial Evolution of the April 2020 Stealth Coronal Mass Ejection between 0.8 and 1 AU -- A Comparison of Forbush Decreases at Solar Orbiter and Earth
• Accurate X-ray Timing in the Presence of Systematic Biases With Simulation-Based Inference
• Writhed Analytical Magnetic Flux Rope Model