Predicting CMEs using ELEvoHI with STEREO-HI beacon data

Abstract

Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long-standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Images (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of 10 CME events that were observed by HI on the STEREO-A spacecraft between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, we introduce a Python tool for downloading and preparing STEREO-HI data, as well as tracking CMEs. In contrast to most previous studies, we use not only science data, which has a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution, but also low-quality beacon data, which is - in contrast to science data - provided in real-time by the STEREO-A spacecraft. We do not use data from the STEREO-B spacecraft. We get a mean absolute error of 8.81 $\pm$ 3.18 h / 59 $\pm$ 31 kms${}^{-1}$ for arrival time/speed predictions using science data and 11.36 $\pm$ 8.69 h / 106 $\pm$ 61 kms${}^{-1}$ for beacon data. We find that using science data generally leads to more accurate predictions, but using beacon data with the ELEvoHI model is certainly a viable choice in the absence of higher resolution real-time data. We propose that these differences could be minimized if not eliminated altogether if higher quality real-time data was available, either by enhancing the quality of the already available data or coming from a new mission carrying a HI instrument on-board.

25 pages, 9 figures, submitted to AGU Space Weather 2021 August 9, published in Space Weather 2021 December 3

References in corpus (7)

• Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars
• Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
• Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations
• Combined Multipoint Remote and In Situ Observations of the Asymmetric Evolution of a Fast Solar Coronal Mass Ejection
• Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
• Why are ELEvoHI CME arrival predictions different if based on STEREO-A or STEREO-B heliospheric imager observations?
• Drag-based CME modeling with heliospheric images incorporating frontal deformation: ELEvoHI 2.0

Cited by in corpus (3)

• CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting
• Using Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor for real time space weather predictions
• Beacon2Science: Enhancing STEREO/HI beacon data with machine learning for efficient CME tracking