Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

Abstract

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

arXiv comment27 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the AGU journal "Space Weather" on 2017 July 1

References in corpus (13)

• Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods
• Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars
• Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
• Reconstructing CMEs with Coordinated Imaging and In Situ Observations: Global Structure, Kinematics, and Implications for Space Weather Forecasting
• STEREO and Wind observations of a fast ICME flank triggering a prolonged geomagnetic storm on 5-7 April 2010
• FRiED: A novel three-dimensional model of coronal mass ejections
• Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models
• Quantitative Comparison of Methods for Predicting the Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections at Earth based on multi-view imaging
• Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations
• Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts
• A STEREO Survey of Magnetic Cloud Coronal Mass Ejections Observed at Earth in 2008--2012
• Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre
• Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength from Inner Heliospheric In Situ Observations

Cited by in corpus (36)

• Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard
• Generic magnetic field intensity profiles of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at Mercury, Venus and Earth from superposed epoch analyses
• Forward modeling of coronal mass ejection flux ropes in the inner heliosphere with 3DCORE
• Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In situ Comparison
• Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations
• Multipoint interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and STEREO-A
• Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers
• CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1
• Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
• CME Magnetic Structure and IMF Preconditioning Affecting SEP Transport
• Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observations
• Connecting Coronal Mass Ejections to their Solar Active Region Sources: Combining Results from the HELCATS and FLARECAST Projects
• Correlation of ICME Magnetic Fields at Radially Aligned Spacecraft
• A Catalog of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Observed by Juno between 1 and 5.4 AU
• Coronal mass ejection deformation at 0.1 au observed by WISPR
• Machine learning for predicting the Bz magnetic field component from upstream in situ observations of solar coronal mass ejections
• Multi-Spacecraft Observations of the Evolution of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Between 0.3 and 2.2 AU: Conjunctions with the Juno Spacecraft
• Radial Evolution of the April 2020 Stealth Coronal Mass Ejection between 0.8 and 1 AU -- A Comparison of Forbush Decreases at Solar Orbiter and Earth
• Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICMEs Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models
• CMEs in the Heliosphere: III. A Statistical Analysis of the Kinematic Properties Derived from Stereoscopic Geometrical Modelling Techniques Applied to CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2008 to 2014 by STEREO/HI-1
• Prediction of Dst during solar minimum using in situ measurements at L5
• Why are ELEvoHI CME arrival predictions different if based on STEREO-A or STEREO-B heliospheric imager observations?
• Turbulence Properties of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Inner Heliosphere: Dependence on Proton Beta and Flux Rope Structure
• Eruption and propagation of twisted flux ropes from the base of the solar corona to 1 au
• Predicting the Time-of-Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections at Earth From Heliospheric Imaging Observations
• Quantifying the uncertainty in CME kinematics derived from geometric modelling of Heliospheric Imager data
• Tracking and Validating ICMEs Propagating Toward Mars Using STEREO Heliospheric Imagers Combined With Forbush Decreases Detected by MSL/RAD
• Near subsonic solar wind outflow from an active region
• Evolution of coronal mass ejections with and without sheaths from the inner to the outer heliosphere -- statistical investigation for 1975-2022
• Predicting CMEs using ELEvoHI with STEREO-HI beacon data
• Space weather: the solar perspective -- an update to Schwenn (2006)
• Helium Abundance Periods Observed by the Solar Probe Cup on Parker Solar Probe: Encounters 1-14
• Intermittency in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Observed by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter
• Temperature anisotropy instabilities driven by intermittent velocity shears in the solar wind
• Which Upstream Solar Wind Conditions Matter Most in Predicting Bz within Coronal Mass Ejections
• Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs from the Sun to Saturn