449 citations · 2.1k across the 35 of their papers we have counts for
40 papers
Assessing Monotone Dependence: Area Under the Curve Meets Rank Correlation
Eva-Maria Walz, Andreas Eberl, Tilmann Gneiting
The assessment of monotone dependence between random variables is a classical problem in statistics and a gamut of application domains. Consequently, researchers have sought measur…
Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output
Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus +3
We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction…
Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts -- An application to Italy
Jonas R. Brehmer, Kristof Kraus, Tilmann Gneiting +2
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phas…
Physics-based vs. data-driven 24-hour probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for northern tropical Africa
Eva-Maria Walz, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink +2
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to skillfully predict tropical precipitation occurrence and amount, calling for alternative approaches. For instance, it has been…
Decompositions of the mean continuous ranked probability score
Sebastian Arnold, Eva-Maria Walz, Johanna Ziegel +1
The continuous ranked probability score (crps) is the most commonly used scoring rule in the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts for real-valued outcomes. To assess and rank fore…
Evaluating Probabilistic Classifiers: The Triptych
Timo Dimitriadis, Tilmann Gneiting, Alexander I. Jordan +1
Probability forecasts for binary outcomes, often referred to as probabilistic classifiers or confidence scores, are ubiquitous in science and society, and methods for evaluating an…