449 citations · 2.1k across the 35 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers · 1 filter
Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output
Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus +3
We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction…
Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts -- An application to Italy
Jonas R. Brehmer, Kristof Kraus, Tilmann Gneiting +2
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phas…
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
Johannes Bracher, Evan L. Ray, Tilmann Gneiting +1
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive interva…
Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall over northern tropical Africa
Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink +2
Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performan…
Spatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts
Annette Möller, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski +1
Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. St…
Section on the special year for mathematics of planet earth (MPE 2013)
Tilmann Gneiting
Dozens of research centers, foundations, international organizations and scientific societies, including the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, have joined forces to celebrate 2…