449 citations · 2.1k across the 35 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: Reliability diagrams and score decompositions revisited
Timo Dimitriadis, Tilmann Gneiting, Alexander I. Jordan
A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in rel…
Scoring Interval Forecasts: Equal-Tailed, Shortest, and Modal Interval
Jonas Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting
We consider different types of predictive intervals and ask whether they are elicitable, i.e. are unique minimizers of a loss or scoring function in expectation. The equal-tailed i…
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
Johannes Bracher, Evan L. Ray, Tilmann Gneiting +1
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive interva…