Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

Abstract

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.

Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper

References in corpus (3)

• An objective change-point analysis of historical Atlantic hurricane numbers
• Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900
• Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes