Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes

Abstract

One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane numbers, closed-form solutions exist for the mean and the variance of the number of predicted hurricanes, and for the standard error on the mean. We derive a number of such expressions.

References in corpus (2)

• Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods
• Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and \emph{Landfalling} Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers

Cited by in corpus (2)

• Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature
• Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions