Year-ahead Prediction of Hurricane Season Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

Abstract

One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards setting up such a system this article compares three simple statistical methods for the year-ahead prediction of the relevant SSTs.

References in corpus (1)

• Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Cited by in corpus (5)

• Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods
• Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature
• Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes
• Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and \emph{Landfalling} Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers
• Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes