activity
20062026
most citedFive year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

10 citations · 29 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

8 papers

physics.comp-ph2026

Bayesian Inference: Kernel-Based Model for Surface Temperature Reconstruction in Ice Borehole Thermometry

Kshema Shaju, Thomas Laepple, Peter Zaspel

Reconstructing past surface temperature from shallow ice borehole temperature profiles requires solving an ill-posed inverse problem while quantifying uncertainties arising from me…

physics.ao-ph2025

Lacking oceanic-driven internal multidecadal climate variability is compensated by forced variability in model simulations

Raphaël Hébert, Thomas Laepple

Regional climate change in the century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse ga…

physics.ao-ph2007★ 1 cited

Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature: theoretical comparisons of direct and indirect approaches

Stephen Jewson, Thomas Laepple, Kechi Nzerem +1

We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical nu…

physics.ao-ph2007★ 1 cited

Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

Stephen Jewson, Thomas Laepple, Adam O'Shay +3

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landf…

physics.ao-ph2007★ 1 cited

Correlations between hurricane numbers and sea surface temperature: why does the correlation disappear at landfall?

Thomas Laepple, Enrica Bellone, Stephen Jewson +1

There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the s…

physics.ao-ph2007★ 10 cited

Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

Thomas Laepple, Stephen Jewson

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the…