Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods

Abstract

We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this study we compare the historical performance of three simple statistical methods for making five-year SST forecasts. We also present SST forecasts for 2006-2010 using these methods and compare them to forecasts made from two structural time series models.

Cited by in corpus (5)

• Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods
• Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature
• Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes
• Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and \emph{Landfalling} Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers
• Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature: theoretical comparisons of direct and indirect approaches