A Near-Earth Object Model Calibrated to Earth Impactors

Abstract

The population of Earth-impacting meteoroids and its size-dependent orbital elements are key to understanding the origin of meteorites and informing on planetary defence efforts. Outstanding questions include the role of collisions in depleting meteoroids on highly evolved orbits and the relative importance of delivery resonances. Those depend on size, with current dynamical models considering only asteroids larger than 10m in diameter. Based on 1,202 sporadic meteoroids observed by the Global Fireball Observatory, we created a debiased model of the near-Earth meteoroid population in the 10g - 150kg in size (approximately 1cm - 0.5m) as they dynamically evolved from the main asteroid belt onto Earth-crossing orbits. The observed impact population is best matched with a collisional half-life decreasing from 3Myr for meteoroids of 0.6kg (7cm) or higher, to 1Myr below this size, extending to the model lower bound of 10g. Placing our results in context with near-Earth object models for larger sizes, we find that the inner main belt continues to dominate feeding the small 1m to 10m diameter population primarily via the ${\nu }_6$ secular resonance and the 3:1J mean motion resonance. We also evaluated the potential significance of physical processes other than collisions on Earth-impacting meteoroids, such as low-perihelion disruptions from thermal stresses.

Accepted by The Astronomical Journal

References in corpus (59)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Array Programming with NumPy
• X-ray spectral modelling of the AGN obscuring region in the CDFS: Bayesian model selection and catalogue
• REBOUND: An open-source multi-purpose N-body code for collisional dynamics
• Importance Nested Sampling and the MultiNest Algorithm
• IAS15: A fast, adaptive, high-order integrator for gravitational dynamics, accurate to machine precision over a billion orbits
• Cometary Origin of the Zodiacal Cloud and Carbonaceous Micrometeorites
• Solar System evolution from compositional mapping of the asteroid belt
• The taxonomic distribution of asteroids from multi-filter all-sky photometric surveys
• The Active Asteroids
• Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distributions for near-Earth objects
• Compositional distributions and evolutionary processes for the near-Earth object population: Results from the MIT-Hawaii Near-Earth Object Spectroscopic Survey (MITHNEOS
• Simulations of the Population of Centaurs I: The Bulk Statistics
• Steady-State Size Distributions for Collisional Populations: Analytical Solution with Size-Dependent Strength
• Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors
• Asteroid family ages
• Physics of Meteor Generated Shock Waves in the Earth's Atmosphere - A Review
• Origin and Evolution of Short-Period Comets
• Albedo Properties of Main Belt Asteroids Based on the Infrared All-Sky Survey of the Astronomical Satellite AKARI
• The Global Meteor Network -- Methodology and First Results
• Identification of meteorite source regions in the Solar System
• A Global Fireball Observatory
• Connecting Asteroids and Meteorites with visible and near-infrared spectroscopy
• NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects
• Orbital and Physical Characteristics of Meter-scale Impactors from Airburst Observations
• Solar System Physics for Exoplanet Research
• Potential Jupiter-Family Comet Contamination of the Main Asteroid Belt
• Source regions of carbonaceous meteorites and NEOs
• The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA
• The Dingle Dell meteorite: a Halloween treat from the Main Belt
• The debiased compositional distribution of MITHNEOS: Global match between the near-Earth and main-belt asteroid populations and excess of D-type Near-Earth Objects
• Properties and evolution of NEO families created by tidal disruption at Earth
• Determining fireball fates using the $\alpha$-$\beta$ criterion
• Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects
• That's the way the comet crumbles: Splitting Jupiter-family comets
• Physical Properties of Asteroids in Comet-like Orbits in Infrared Asteroid Survey Catalogs
• Data on 824 fireballs observed by the digital cameras of the European Fireball Network in 2017-2018. II. Analysis of orbital and physical properties of centimeter-sized meteoroids
• Hungaria Asteroid Family as the Source of Aubrite Meteorites
• Atmospheric entry and fragmentation of small asteroid 2024 BX1: Bolide trajectory, orbit, dynamics, light curve, and spectrum
• Tidal disruption of near-Earth asteroids during close encounters with terrestrial planets
• Comparing Analytical and Numerical Approaches to Meteoroid Orbit Determination using Hayabusa Telemetry
• Supercatastrophic disruption of asteroids in the context of SOHO comet, fireball and meteor observations
• Performance of D-criteria in isolating meteor showers from the sporadic background in an optical data set
• Potential Themis Family Asteroid Contribution to the Jupiter-Family Comet Population
• Modification of the Shower Database of the IAU Meteor Data Center
• Near Earth stream decoherence revisited: the limits of orbital similarity
• Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense
• Perihelion history and atmospheric survival as primary drivers of the Earth`s meteorite record
• The main asteroid belt: the primary source of debris on comet-like orbits
• Decameter-sized Earth impactors -- I: Orbital properties
• Fireball streak detection with minimal CPU processing requirements for the Desert Fireball Network data processing pipeline
• The frequency of window damage caused by bolide airbursts: a quarter century case study
• The hazardous km-sized NEOs of the next thousands of years
• Minimum perihelion distances and associated dwell times for near-Earth asteroids
• Comparing the dynamics of Jupiter-family Comets and comet-like fireballs
• Are some meteoroids rubble piles?
• Spectral properties of near-Earth objects with low-Jovian Tisserand invariant
• Using Atmospheric Impact Data to Model Meteoroid Close Encounters
• Statistical significance of meteorite-asteroid pairs using geocentric parameters