Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distributions for near-Earth objects

Abstract

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude $H$ in the range $17<H<25$. The modeling approach improves upon the methodology originally developed by Bottke et al. (2000; Science 288, 2190-2194) in that it is, for example, based on more realistic orbit distributions and uses source-specific absolute-magnitude distributions that allow for a power-law slope that varies with $H$. We divide the main asteroid belt into six different entrance routes or regions (ER) to the NEO region: the ${\nu }_6$, 3:1J, 5:2J and 2:1J resonance complexes as well as Hungarias and Phocaeas. In addition we include the Jupiter-family comets as the primary cometary source of NEOs. We calibrate the model against NEO detections by Catalina Sky Surveys' stations 703 and G96 during 2005-2012, and utilize the complementary nature of these two systems to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated to the resulting model. The most important ERs are the ${\nu }_6$ and 3:1J resonance complexes with JFCs contributing a few percent of NEOs on average. We predict that there are $962_{-56}^{+52}$ ($802_{-42}^{+48}\times 10^3$) NEOs with $H<17.75$ ($H<25$) and these numbers are in agreement with the most recent estimates found in the literature (the uncertainty estimates only account for the random component).

33 pages, 28 figures, accepted for publication in Icarus

References in corpus (5)

• Solar System evolution from compositional mapping of the asteroid belt
• Efficient intra- and inter-night linking of asteroid detections using kd-trees
• The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations
• The size-frequency distribution of H>13 NEOs and ARM targets detected by Pan-STARRS1
• Dynamical Origin and Terrestrial Impact Flux of Large Near-Earth Asteroids

Cited by in corpus (102)

• Compositional distributions and evolutionary processes for the near-Earth object population: Results from the MIT-Hawaii Near-Earth Object Spectroscopic Survey (MITHNEOS
• Sciences with the 2.5-meter Wide Field Survey Telescope (WFST)
• Identification of meteorite source regions in the Solar System
• Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science
• Connecting Asteroids and Meteorites with visible and near-infrared spectroscopy
• A Global Fireball Observatory
• NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects
• Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network
• Yarkovsky Drift Detections for 247 Near-Earth Asteroids
• A million asteroid observations in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
• Asteroid Families: properties, recent advances and future opportunities
• Gaia Data Release 3: Reflectance spectra of Solar System small bodies
• Debiased albedo distribution for Near Earth Objects
• Source regions of carbonaceous meteorites and NEOs
• Tidal distortion and disruption of rubble-pile bodies revisited -- Soft-sphere discrete element analyses
• The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA
• Asteroid Kamo`oalewa's journey from the lunar Giordano Bruno crater to Earth 1:1 resonance
• Visible spectroscopy from the Mission Accessible Near-Earth Object Survey (MANOS): Taxonomic dependence on asteroid size
• Orbital characterization of superbolides observed from space: dynamical association with near-Earth objects, meteoroid streams and identification of hyperbolic meteoroids
• The debiased compositional distribution of MITHNEOS: Global match between the near-Earth and main-belt asteroid populations and excess of D-type Near-Earth Objects
• Early Bombardment of the Moon: Connecting the Lunar Crater Record to the Terrestrial Planet Formation
• Dynamical Evolution and Thermal History of Asteroids (3200) Phaethon and (155140) 2005 UD
• No evidence for interstellar planetesimals trapped in the Solar System
• A Twilight Search for Atiras, Vatiras and Co-orbital Asteroids: Preliminary Results
• Establishing Earth's Minimoon Population through Characterization of Asteroid 2020 CD${}_3$
• The role of the Yarkovsky effect in the long-term dynamics of asteroid (469219) Kamo'oalewa
• Low thermal conductivity of the superfast rotator (499998) 2011 PT
• Tidal disruption of near-Earth asteroids during close encounters with terrestrial planets
• Lunar ejecta origin of near-Earth asteroid Kamo`oalewa is compatible with rare orbital pathways
• The Hamburg Meteorite Fall: Fireball trajectory, orbit and dynamics
• The discovery and characterization of a kilometre sized asteroid inside the orbit of Venus
• Trajectory, recovery, and orbital history of the Madura Cave meteorite
• Isolating the mechanisms for asteroid surface refreshing
• A common origin for dynamically associated near-Earth asteroid pairs
• Supercatastrophic disruption of asteroids in the context of SOHO comet, fireball and meteor observations
• Grain Size Effects on UV-MIR (0.2-14 micron) Spectra of Carbonaceous Chondrite Groups
• Potential Themis Family Asteroid Contribution to the Jupiter-Family Comet Population
• A new martian crater chronology: Implications for Jezero crater
• Dynamical evolution of the inner asteroid belt
• Arpu Kuilpu: An H5 from the Outer Main Belt
• The low surface thermal inertia of the rapidly rotating near-Earth asteroid 2016 GE1
• Breakup of a Long-Period Comet as the Origin of the Dinosaur Extinction
• An Automated Bolide Detection Pipeline for GOES GLM
• Orbital Dynamics of 2020 AV2: the First Vatira Asteroid
• The digest2 NEO Classification Code
• On the orbital evolution of meteoroid 2020 CD3, a temporarily captured orbiter of the Earth-Moon system
• Dancing with Venus in the shadow of the Earth: a pair of genetically related near-Earth asteroids trapped in a mean-motion resonance
• Where Did They Come From, Where Did They Go. Grazing Fireballs
• Spectroscopic and dynamical properties of comet C/2018 F4, likely a true average former member of the Oort cloud
• New multi-part collisional model of the main belt: The contribution to near-Earth asteroids
• A Deep and Wide Twilight Survey for Asteroids Interior to Earth and Venus
• Near Earth stream decoherence revisited: the limits of orbital similarity
• Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense
• Perihelion history and atmospheric survival as primary drivers of the Earth`s meteorite record
• Debris of asteroid disruptions close to the Sun
• On the orbital evolution of 2020 AV2, the first asteroid ever observed to go around the Sun inside the orbit of Venus
• The main asteroid belt: the primary source of debris on comet-like orbits
• Decameter-sized Earth impactors -- I: Orbital properties
• Video Observations of Tiny Near-Earth Objects with Tomo-e Gozen
• Photometry and Polarimetry of 2010 XC${}_{15}$: Observational Confirmation of E-type Near-Earth Asteroid Pair
• Astrometry, orbit determination, and thermal inertia of the Tianwen-2 target asteroid (469219) Kamo`oalewa
• Compositional properties of planet-crossing asteroids from astronomical surveys
• Minimum perihelion distances and associated dwell times for near-Earth asteroids
• GOES GLM, Biased Bolides, and Debiased Distributions
• Spitzer Albedos of Near-Earth Objects
• Physical characterization of 2020 AV2, the first known asteroid orbiting inside Venus orbit
• Comparing the dynamics of Jupiter-family Comets and comet-like fireballs
• Number of near-Earth objects and formation of lunar craters over the last billion years
• Identifying parent bodies of meteorites among near-Earth asteroids
• Transient Jupiter Co-orbitals from Solar System Sources
• A polarimetric study of asteroids in comet-like orbits
• Resonant mechanisms that produce near-Sun asteroids
• Analysis of the Karma asteroid family
• Understanding the evolution of Atira-class asteroid 2019 AQ3, a major step towards the future discovery of the Vatira population
• Using Atmospheric Impact Data to Model Meteoroid Close Encounters
• Maps of secular resonances in the NEO region
• The equilibrium shape of (65) Cybele: primordial or relic of a large impact?
• Waiting to make an impact: A probable excess of near-Earth asteroids in 2018 LA-like orbits
• Search Capability for Near-Earth Objects with the Wide Field Survey Telescope
• Dynamical Origin of (469219) Kamo`oalewa of Tianwen-2 Mission from the Main-Belt: ${\nu }_6$ Secular Resonance, Flora Family or 3:1 Resonance with Jupiter
• Apophis source population and Earth encounter frequency of Apophis-like bodies
• Chaotic diffusion of asteroids in the exterior 1:2 mean motion resonance with Mars
• Statistical significance of meteorite-asteroid pairs using geocentric parameters
• Simulation of Sky Surveys with the Flyeye Telescope
• Multi-wavelength JWST observations of (3200) Phaethon show a dehydrated object with an aqueously altered origin
• Shape-Driven Selection Effects for Aspherical Near-Earth Objects in Systematic Surveys
• The orbital evolution of Atira asteroids
• Four Billion Year Stability of the Earth-Mars Belt
• Accessible does not mean exploitable: HiPERCAM reveals the ultra-fast rotation of 2022 OB${}_5$
• Decameter-sized Earth Impactors -- II: A Bayesian Inference Approach to Meteoroid Ablation Modeling
• Placing the Near-Earth Object Impact Probability in Context
• Near-Earth asteroids in Main Belt-crossing orbits
• Long-Term Dynamical Evolution and Ejection of Near-Earth Asteroids
• Parameter resolution of near-Earth asteroids using LISA
• Possibility of transporting material from Ceres to NEO region via 8:3 MMR with Jupiter
• The steady-state population of Earth's co-orbitals of lunar provenance
• Surface Properties of Near-Sun Asteroids
• Close Encounters of the Interstellar Kind: Examining the Capture of Interstellar Objects in Near Earth Orbit
• Reprocessing the NEAT Dataset: Preliminary Results
• Impact chronology of leftover planetesimals
• Optimal Control and Neural Porkchop Analysis for Low-Thrust Asteroid Rendezvous Mission
• A Near-Earth Object Model Calibrated to Earth Impactors