KiDS-SBI: Simulation-based inference analysis of KiDS-1000 cosmic shear

Abstract

We present a simulation-based inference (SBI) cosmological analysis of cosmic shear two-point statistics from the fourth weak gravitational lensing data release of the ESO Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000). KiDS-SBI efficiently performs non-Limber projection of the matter power spectrum via Levin's method, and constructs log-normal random matter fields on the curved sky for arbitrary cosmologies, including effective prescriptions for intrinsic alignments and baryonic feedback. The forward model samples realistic galaxy positions and shapes based on the observational characteristics, incorporating shear measurement and redshift calibration uncertainties, as well as angular anisotropies due to variations in depth and point-spread function. To enable direct comparison with standard inference, we limit our analysis to pseudo-angular power spectra. The SBI is based on sequential neural likelihood estimation to infer the posterior distribution of spatially-flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmological parameters from 18,000 realisations. We infer a mean marginal of the growth of structure parameter $S_8\equiv {\sigma }_8({\Omega }_{\mathrm{m}}/0.3{)}^{0.5}=0.731\pm 0.033$ ($68\%$). We present a measure of goodness-of-fit for SBI and determine that the forward model fits the data well with a probability-to-exceed of $0.42$. For fixed cosmology, the learnt likelihood is approximately Gaussian, while constraints widen compared to a Gaussian likelihood analysis due to cosmology dependence in the covariance. Neglecting variable depth and anisotropies in the point spread function in the model can cause $S_8$ to be overestimated by $\sim 5\%$. Our results are in agreement with previous analysis of KiDS-1000 and reinforce a $2.9\sigma$ tension with constraints from cosmic microwave background measurements. This work highlights the importance of forward-modelling systematic effects in upcoming galaxy surveys.

41 pages, 30 figures. Published in Astronomy & Astrophysics

References in corpus (59)

• Array Programming with NumPy
• Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing
• KiDS-1000 Cosmology: Cosmic shear constraints and comparison between two point statistics
• KiDS-1000 Cosmology: Multi-probe weak gravitational lensing and spectroscopic galaxy clustering constraints
• Dark energy constraints from cosmic shear power spectra: impact of intrinsic alignments on photometric redshift requirements
• Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmology from Cosmic Shear and Robustness to Data Calibration
• Extended Limber Approximation
• Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmology from Cosmic Shear and Robustness to Modeling Uncertainty
• Third Data Release of the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program
• HMcode-2020: Improved modelling of non-linear cosmological power spectra with baryonic feedback
• The fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey: ugri imaging and nine-band optical-IR photometry over 1000 square degrees
• Weighing the Giants IV: Cosmology and Neutrino Mass
• KiDS-450 + 2dFLenS: Cosmological parameter constraints from weak gravitational lensing tomography and overlapping redshift-space galaxy clustering
• Bayesian Galaxy Shape Measurement for Weak Lensing Surveys -I. Methodology and a Fast Fitting Algorithm
• Constraints on intrinsic alignment contamination of weak lensing surveys using the MegaZ-LRG sample
• Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 Results: Cosmology from Cosmic Shear Power Spectra
• Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Weak Lensing Shape Catalogue
• A non-linear solution to the $S_8$ tension?
• KiDS-1000 catalogue: Redshift distributions and their calibration
• KiDS-1000 catalogue: Weak gravitational lensing shear measurements
• KiDS-1000 Cosmology: constraints beyond flat $\Lambda$CDM
• KiDS-1000 Methodology: Modelling and inference for joint weak gravitational lensing and spectroscopic galaxy clustering analysis
• Likelihood-free inference with neural compression of DES SV weak lensing map statistics
• Nuisance hardened data compression for fast likelihood-free inference
• The SRG/eROSITA all-sky survey: Cosmology constraints from cluster abundances in the western Galactic hemisphere
• Joint constraints on cosmology and the impact of baryon feedback: combining KiDS-1000 lensing with the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect from Planck and ACT
• Quantifying the global parameter tensions between ACT, SPT and Planck
• Shear Power Spectrum Reconstruction using Pseudo-Spectrum Method
• KiDS-1000: cosmic shear with enhanced redshift calibration
• Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clusters and Groups in the eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey
• Cosmic shear power spectra in practice
• Euclid Preparation. XXVIII. Forecasts for ten different higher-order weak lensing statistics
• On the insufficiency of arbitrarily precise covariance matrices: non-Gaussian weak lensing likelihoods
• Mock galaxy shape catalogs in the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey
• Constraining baryonic feedback and cosmology with weak-lensing, X-ray, and kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich observations
• A Full $w$CDM Analysis of KiDS-1000 Weak Lensing Maps using Deep Learning
• KiDS & Euclid: Cosmological implications of a pseudo angular power spectrum analysis of KiDS-1000 cosmic shear tomography
• A neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center $\gamma$-ray excess
• KiDS-1000: Cosmology with improved cosmic shear measurements
• KiDS-1000: Constraints on the intrinsic alignment of luminous red galaxies
• The XXL survey: XLVI. Forward cosmological analysis of the C1 cluster sample
• The sum of the masses of the Milky Way and M31: a likelihood-free inference approach
• Cosmological constraints from HSC survey first-year data using deep learning
• Libpsht - algorithms for efficient spherical harmonic transforms
• Robust Simulation-Based Inference in Cosmology with Bayesian Neural Networks
• GLASS: Generator for Large Scale Structure
• The N5K Challenge: Non-Limber Integration for LSST Cosmology
• Organised Randoms: Learning and correcting for systematic galaxy clustering patterns in KiDS using self-organising maps
• Bayesian model comparison for simulation-based inference
• The effects of varying depth in cosmic shear surveys
• Sufficiency of a Gaussian power spectrum likelihood for accurate cosmology from upcoming weak lensing surveys
• Fast and realistic large-scale structure from machine-learning-augmented random field simulations
• A simulation-based inference pipeline for cosmic shear with the Kilo-Degree Survey
• Almanac: Weak Lensing power spectra and map inference on the masked sphere
• The unequal-time matter power spectrum: impact on weak lensing observables
• The Impact of Anisotropic Redshift Distributions on Angular Clustering
• Simulation-based inference of deep fields: galaxy population model and redshift distributions
• Fast likelihood-free inference in the LSS Stage IV era
• Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low-$z$ IGM using likelihood free inference

Cited by in corpus (16)

• The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics
• Simulation-Based Inference Benchmark for Weak Lensing Cosmology
• KiDS-Legacy: Covariance validation and the unified OneCovariance framework for projected large-scale structure observables
• Learning the Universe: Cosmological and Astrophysical Parameter Inference with Galaxy Luminosity Functions and Colours
• Hybrid summary statistics: neural weak lensing inference beyond the power spectrum
• XRISM constraints on the velocity power spectrum in the Coma cluster
• Cosmological Constraints with Void Lensing I: the Simulation-Based Inference Framework
• Galaxy cluster count cosmology with simulation-based inference
• Pixelization effects in cosmic shear angular power spectra
• Galaxy-Point Spread Function correlations as a probe of weak-lensing systematics with UNIONS data
• Constraining cosmological parameters using density split lensing and the conditional stellar mass function
• GalSBI: Phenomenological galaxy population model for cosmology using simulation-based inference
• Quantifying Weighted Morphological Content of Large-Scale Structures via Simulation-Based Inference
• How to embed any likelihood into SBI: Application to Planck + Stage IV galaxy surveys and Dynamical Dark Energy
• Exploring the Early Universe with Deep Learning
• $\text{SBi3PCF:}$ Simulation-based inference with the integrated 3PCF