Flare Duty Cycle of Gamma-Ray Blazars and Implications for High-Energy Neutrino Emission

Abstract

Gamma-ray flares of blazars may be accompanied by high-energy neutrinos due to interactions of high-energy cosmic rays in the jet with photons, as suggested by the detection of the high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A during a major gamma-ray flare from blazar TXS 0506+056 at the $\sim 3\sigma$ significance level. In this work, we present a statistical study of gamma-ray emission from blazars to constrain the contribution of gamma-ray flares to their neutrino output. We construct weekly binned light curves for 145 gamma-ray bright blazars in the {\it Fermi} Large Area Telescope (LAT) Monitored Source List adding TXS 0506+056. We derive the fraction of time spent in the flaring state (flare duty cycle) and the fraction of energy released during each flare from the light curves with a Bayesian blocks algorithm. We find that blazars with lower flare duty cycles and energy fractions are more numerous among our sample. We identify a significant difference in flare duty cycles between blazar sub-classes at a significance level of 5~\%. Then using a general scaling relation for the neutrino and gamma-ray luminosities, $L_{\nu }\propto (L_{\gamma }{)}^{\gamma }$ with a weighting exponent of $\gamma =1.0-2.0$, normalized to the quiescent gamma-ray or X-ray flux of each blazar, we evaluate the neutrino energy flux of each gamma-ray flare. The gamma-ray flare distribution indicates that blazar neutrino emission may be dominated by flares for $\gamma \gtrsim 1.5$. The neutrino energy fluxes for one-week and 10-year bins are compared with the declination-dependent IceCube sensitivity to constrain the standard neutrino emission models for gamma-ray flares. Finally, we present the upper-limit contribution of blazar gamma-ray flares to the isotropic diffuse neutrino flux.

20 pages, 18 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ

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• Testing unified models for the origin of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays and neutrinos: Multimessenger approaches with x-ray observations
• Multi-messenger connection in high-energy neutrino astronomy
• Detectability of Polarized Gamma-ray Emission from Blazar Flares with COSI