Bayesian constraints on the astrophysical neutrino source population from IceCube data

Abstract

We present constraints on an astrophysical population of neutrino sources imposed by recent data from the IceCube neutrino observatory. By using the IceCube point source search method to model the detection of sources, our detection criterion is more sensitive than using the observation of high-energy neutrino multiplets for source identification. We frame the problem as a Bayesian hierarchical model to connect the high-level population parameters to the IceCube data, allowing us to consistently account for all relevant sources of uncertainty in our model assumptions. Our results show that sources with a local density of $n_0\gtrsim 10^{-7}$ ${\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$ and luminosity $L\lesssim 10^{43}$ erg/s are the most likely candidates, but that populations of rare sources with $n_0\simeq 10^{-9}$ ${\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$ and $L\simeq 10^{45}$ erg/s can still be consistent with the IceCube observations. We demonstrate that these conclusions are strongly dependent on the source evolution considered, for which we consider a wide range of models. In doing so, we present realistic, model-independent constraints on the population parameters that reflect our current state of knowledge from astrophysical neutrino observations. We also use our framework to investigate constraints in the case of possible source detections and future instrument upgrades. Our approach is flexible and can be used to model specific source cases and extended to include multi-messenger information.

Update to address erratum published at DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.105.129904. Code available online at https://github.com/cescalara/nu_pop

References in corpus (16)

• Cosmic Star Formation History
• The spectrum of isotropic diffuse gamma-ray emission between 100 MeV and 820 GeV
• Observation and Characterization of a Cosmic Muon Neutrino Flux from the Northern Hemisphere using six years of IceCube data
• Time-integrated Neutrino Source Searches with 10 years of IceCube Data
• All-sky search for time-integrated neutrino emission from astrophysical sources with 7 years of IceCube data
• Constraining High-Energy Cosmic Neutrino Sources: Implications and Prospects
• Methods for point source analysis in high energy neutrino telescopes
• TXS 0506+056, the first cosmic neutrino source, is not a BL Lac
• Time-Integrated Searches for Point-like Sources of Neutrinos with the 40-String IceCube Detector
• IceCube-Gen2: A Vision for the Future of Neutrino Astronomy in Antarctica
• Constraints on Galactic Neutrino Emission with Seven Years of IceCube Data
• Pinpointing Extragalactic Neutrino Sources in Light of Recent IceCube Observations
• Astrophysical Sources of High Energy Neutrinos in the IceCube Era
• Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Backgrounds as Probes of the High-Energy Universe: Hints of Cascades, General Constraints, and Implications for TeV Searches
• Proton and Neutrino Extragalactic Astronomy
• Perspectives of High Energy Neutrino Astronomy

Cited by in corpus (18)

• Evidence for neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068
• Directional association of TeV to PeV astrophysical neutrinos with radio blazars
• Characterization of the Astrophysical Diffuse Neutrino Flux using Starting Track Events in IceCube
• Constraints on the models of the origin of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos
• Where do IceCube neutrinos come from? Hints from the diffuse gamma-ray flux
• High-energy neutrino-induced cascade from the direction of the flaring radio blazar TXS 0506+056 observed by Baikal-GVD in 2021
• Using High-Energy Neutrinos As Cosmic Magnetometers
• Bump-hunting in the diffuse flux of high-energy cosmic neutrinos
• Flare Duty Cycle of Gamma-Ray Blazars and Implications for High-Energy Neutrino Emission
• A comparison of Bayesian sampling algorithms for high-dimensional particle physics and cosmology applications
• Neutrino production in blazar radio cores
• Probing neutrino production in blazars by millimeter VLBI
• Hard X-ray emission from blazars associated with high-energy neutrinos
• Assessing coincident neutrino detections using population models
• Time-integrated constraint on neutrino flux of CHIME fast radio burst sources with 10-year IceCube point-source data
• A hierarchical Bayesian approach to point source analysis in high-energy neutrino telescopes
• Deciphering the Sources of Cosmic Neutrinos
• The IceCube Pie Chart: Relative Source Contributions to the Cosmic Neutrino Flux