Galaxy fields of LISA massive black hole mergers in a simulated Universe

Abstract

LISA will extend the search for gravitational waves (GWs) at $0.1-100$ mHz where loud signals from coalescing binary black holes of $10^4-10^7{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$ are expected. Depending on their mass and luminosity distance, the uncertainty in the LISA sky-localization decreases from hundreds of deg${}^2$ during the inspiral phase to fractions of a deg${}^2$ after the merger. By using the semi-analytical model L-Galaxies applied to the Millennium-I merger trees, we generate a simulated Universe to identify the hosts of $z\le 3$ coalescing binaries with total mass of $3\times 10^5$, $3\times 10^6$ and $3\times 10^7{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$, and varying mass ratio. We find that, even at the time of merger, the number of galaxies around the LISA sources is too large ($\gtrsim 10^2$) to allow direct host identification. However, if an X-ray counterpart is associated to the GW sources at $z<1$, all LISA fields at merger are populated by $\lesssim 10$ AGNs emitting above $\sim 10^{-17}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{c}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. For sources at higher redshifts, the poorer sky-localization causes this number to increase up to $\sim 10^3$. Archival data from eRosita will allow discarding $\sim 10\%$ of these AGNs, being too shallow to detect the dim X-ray luminosity of the GW sources. Inspiralling binaries in an active phase with masses $\lesssim 10^6{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$ at $z\le 0.3$ can be detected, as early as $10$ hours before the merger, by future X-ray observatories in less than a few minutes. For these systems, $\lesssim 10$ AGNs are within the LISA sky-localization area. Finally, the LISA-Taiji network would guarantee the identification of an X-ray counterpart $10$ hours before merger for all binaries at $z\lesssim 1$.

25 pages, 14 Figures, To be submitted to MNRAS

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