The winter dilemma

Abstract

With winter coming in the northern hemisphere, disadvantageous seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 requires high immunity levels in the population or increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), compared to summer. Otherwise intensive care units (ICUs) might fill up. However, compliance with mandatory NPIs, vaccine uptake, and individual protective measures depend on individuals' opinions and behavior. Opinions, in turn, depend on information, e.g., about vaccine safety or current infection levels. Therefore, understanding how information about the pandemic affects its spread through the modulation of voluntary protection-seeking behaviors is crucial for better preparedness this winter and for future crises.

Estimation of COVID-19 case numbers for the coming winter