138 citations · 240 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers
Parameter estimation for contact tracing in graph-based models
Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzschmar
We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the nu…
The winter dilemma
Sebastian Contreras, Philipp Dönges, Joel Wagner +8
With winter coming in the northern hemisphere, disadvantageous seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 requires high immunity levels in the population or increasing non-pharmaceutical interventi…
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling +31
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COV…
Contact Tracing -- Old Models and New Challenges
Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzschmar
Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging diseases. Since the 1980's, mathematical modelers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to…
Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies
Robin N Thompson, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, Valerie Isham +40
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to impl…
Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: indirect patient movements
M. J. Piotrowska, K. Sakowski, A. Karch +4
A hybrid network--deterministic model for simulation of multiresistant pathogen spread in a healthcare system is presented. The model accounts for two paths of pathogen transmissio…
Mean field at distance one
Ka Yin Leung, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Odo Diekmann
To be able to understand how infectious diseases spread on networks, it is important to understand the network structure itself in the absence of infection. In this text we conside…