Gravitational-wave Merger Forecasting: Scenarios for the early detection and localization of compact-binary mergers with ground based observatories

Abstract

We present the prospects for the early (pre-merger) detection and localization of compact-binary coalescences using gravitational waves over the next 10 years. Early warning can enable the direct observation of the prompt and early electromagnetic emission of a neutron star merger. We examine the capabilities of the ground based detectors at their "Design" sensitivity (2021-2022), the planned "A+" upgrade (2024-2026), and the envisioned "Voyager" concept (late 2020's). We find that for a fiducial rate of binary neutron star mergers of $1000{\mathrm{Gpc}}^{-3}{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$, the Design, A+, and Voyager era networks can provide 18, 54, and 195s of warning for one source per year of observing, respectively, with a sky localization area $<$100 deg${}^2$ at a $90\%$ credible level. At the same rate, the A+ and Voyager era networks will be able to provide 9 and 43s of warning, respectively, for a source with $<$10 deg${}^2$ localization area. We compare the idealized search sensitivity to that achieved by the PyCBC Live search tuned for pre-merger detection. The gravitational-wave community will be prepared to produce pre-merger alerts. Our results motivate the operation of observatories with wide fields-of-view, automation, and the capability for fast slewing to observe simultaneously with the gravitational-wave network.

11 pages, 4 figures, data release at https://github.com/gwastro/gw-merger-forecasting, updated to match ApJL version

References in corpus (23)

• The NumPy array: a structure for efficient numerical computation
• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• Advanced Virgo: a 2nd generation interferometric gravitational wave detector
• Multi-messenger Observations of a Binary Neutron Star Merger
• Gravitational Waves and Gamma-rays from a Binary Neutron Star Merger: GW170817 and GRB 170817A
• The Zwicky Transient Facility: System Overview, Performance, and First Results
• GW190814: Gravitational Waves from the Coalescence of a 23 M${}_{\odot }$ Black Hole with a 2.6 M${}_{\odot }$ Compact Object
• An Ordinary Short Gamma-Ray Burst with Extraordinary Implications: Fermi-GBM Detection of GRB 170817A
• GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of $150M_{\odot }$
• Swope Supernova Survey 2017a (SSS17a), the Optical Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Source
• INTEGRAL Detection of the First Prompt Gamma-Ray Signal Coincident with the Gravitational Wave Event GW170817
• GW170817: Joint Constraint on the Neutron Star Equation of State from Multimessenger Observations
• Kilonovae
• Candidate Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Binary Black Hole Merger Gravitational Wave Event S190521g
• Detecting binary neutron star systems with spin in advanced gravitational-wave detectors
• The third and a half post-Newtonian gravitational wave quadrupole mode for quasi-circular inspiralling compact binaries
• Revisiting the lower bound on tidal deformability derived by AT 2017gfo
• Improved constraints on H0 from a combined analysis of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from GW170817
• Low-Latency Gravitational Wave Alerts for Multi-Messenger Astronomy During the Second Advanced LIGO and Virgo Observing Run
• Pair Fireball Precursors of Neutron Star Mergers
• Gamma-ray Urgent Archiver for Novel Opportunities (GUANO): Swift/BAT event data dumps on demand to enable sensitive sub-threshold GRB searches
• Potential Gravitational-wave and Gamma-ray Multi-messenger Candidate from Oct. 30, 2015
• Of Harbingers and Higher Modes: Improved gravitational-wave early-warning of compact binary mergers

Cited by in corpus (30)

• One Channel to Rule Them All? Constraining the Origins of Binary Black Holes using Multiple Formation Pathways
• LIGO Detector Characterization in the Second and Third Observing Runs
• Implications of Eccentric Observations on Binary Black Hole Formation Channels
• The Science Case for LIGO-India
• Realtime search for compact binary mergers in Advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run using PyCBC Live
• The Science of the Einstein Telescope
• Suspicious Siblings: The Distribution of Mass and Spin Across Component Black Holes in Isolated Binary Evolution
• First demonstration of early warning gravitational wave alerts
• GWTC-4.0: Updating the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog with Observations from the First Part of the Fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Observing Run
• Kilonova Emission From Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers. II. Luminosity Function and Implications for Target-of-opportunity Observations of Gravitational-wave Triggers and Blind Searches
• Real-time gravitational-wave inference for binary neutron stars using machine learning
• Pre-merger localization of compact-binary mergers with third generation observatories
• Deep Learning with Quantized Neural Networks for Gravitational Wave Forecasting of Eccentric Compact Binary Coalescence
• Early Warnings of Binary Neutron Star Coalescence using the SPIIR Search
• Utilizing the null stream of the Einstein Telescope
• Applications of machine learning in gravitational wave research with current interferometric detectors
• Neutron Star$-$Neutron Star and Neutron Star$-$Black Hole Mergers: Multiband Observations and Early Warnings
• Pre-merger sky localization of gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers using deep learning
• Rapid pre-merger localization of binary neutron stars in third generation gravitational wave detectors
• Convolutional neural network for gravitational-wave early alert: Going down in frequency
• Realistic observing scenarios for the next decade of early warning detection of binary neutron stars
• H.E.S.S. follow-up observations of Binary Black Hole Coalescence events during the second and third Gravitational Waves observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo
• Improved early warning of compact binary mergers using higher modes of gravitational radiation: A population study
• Eccentricity enables the earliest warning and localization of gravitational waves with ground-based detectors
• Early warning of precessing neutron-star black-hole binary mergers with the near-future gravitational-wave detectors
• Improved early-warning estimates of luminosity distance and orbital inclination of compact binary mergers using higher modes of gravitational radiation
• Semianalytical Approach for Sky Localization of Gravitational Waves
• Targeted Search for Gravitational Waves from Highly Spinning Light Compact Binaries
• Gravitational-wave searches in the era of Advanced LIGO and Virgo
• Sky localization of gravitational waves from eccentric binaries