Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

Abstract

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys ($<0.1$~AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between 1 and 7 ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances $<0.1$ AU until 2025, including 1$\sigma$ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semi-empirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component $B_R$, and a sign reversal in the component $B_N$ normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.

11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal on 2020 September 17

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• Occurrence rate of radio-loud and halo CMEs in solar cycle 25: Prediction using their correlation with sunspot numbers
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• The solar-wind angular-momentum flux observed during Solar Orbiter's first orbit
• Ensemble Modeling of the Solar Wind Flow with Boundary Conditions Governed by Synchronic Photospheric Magnetograms. I. Multi-point Validation in the Inner Heliosphere
• Temperature anisotropy instabilities driven by intermittent velocity shears in the solar wind
• Anomalous cosmic rays within the inner heliosphere: Observations of helium by the High Energy Telescope onboard Solar Orbiter
• The Heliospheric Ambipolar Potential Inferred from Sunward-Propagating Halo Electrons