On the Power to Constrain the Accretion History of Massive Black Holes via Spin Measurements by Upcoming X-Ray Telescopes

Abstract

The spin distribution of massive black holes (MBHs) contains rich information on their assembly history. However, only limited information can be extracted from currently available spin measurements of MBHs owing to the small sample size and large measurement uncertainties. Upcoming X-ray telescopes with improved spectral resolution and larger effective area are expected to provide new insights into the growth history of MBHs. Here we investigate, at a proof of concept level, how stringent constraints can be placed on the accretion history of MBHs by the spin measurements from future X-ray missions. We assume a toy model consisting of a two-phase accretion history composed of an initial coherent phase with a constant disk orientation, followed by a chaotic phase with random disk orientations in each accretion episode. By utilizing mock spin data generated from such models and performing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations, we find that most accretion models of MBHs can be reconstructed provided that $\gtrsim 100$ MBH spins are measured with an accuracy of $\lesssim 0.1$. We also quantify the precision of the reconstructed parameters by adopting various combinations of sample sizes and spin accuracies, and find that the sample size is more crucial to model reconstruction once the spin accuracy reaches $\sim 0.1$. To some extent, a better spin accuracy will compensate for a small sample size and vice versa. Future X-ray missions such as the Advanced Telescope for High Energy Astrophysics and the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry mission, may provide spin measurements of $\gtrsim 100$ MBHs with an uncertainty of $\sim 0.04-0.1$ and will thus put strong constraints on the MBH growth history.

arXiv comment11 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

References in corpus (29)

• On the Black Hole Mass - Bulge Mass Relation
• Local Supermassive Black Holes, Relics of Active Galactic Nuclei and the X-ray Background
• A Catalog of Quasar Properties from SDSS DR7
• Observational constraints on growth of massive black holes
• Biases in Virial Black Hole Masses: An SDSS Perspective
• Self-Consistent Models of the AGN and Black Hole Populations: Duty Cycles, Accretion Rates, and the Mean Radiative Efficiency
• Measuring Black Hole Spin using X-ray Reflection Spectroscopy
• Relativistic X-ray Lines from the Inner Accretion Disks Around Black Holes
• Cosmological black hole spin evolution by mergers and accretion
• The enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry mission - eXTP
• The Evolution of Black Hole Mass and Spin in Active Galactic Nuclei
• Aligning spinning black holes and accretion discs
• The evolution of massive black holes and their spins in their galactic hosts
• Predicting the direction of the final spin from the coalescence of two black holes
• An Observed Fundamental Plane Relation for Supermassive Black Holes
• Linking the spin evolution of massive black holes to galaxy kinematics
• Reconstructing the massive black hole cosmic history through gravitational waves
• The evolution of active galactic nuclei and their spins
• On the orientation and magnitude of the black hole spin in galactic nuclei
• Mass and spin coevolution during the alignment of a black hole in a warped accretion disc
• On the spin paradigm and the radio dichotomy of quasars
• Constraints on QSO models from a relation between the QSO luminosity function and the local black hole mass function
• A selection effect boosting the contribution from rapidly spinning black holes to the Cosmic X-ray Background
• Exploring the local black hole mass function below $10^6$ solar masses
• Accretion in Strong Field Gravity with eXTP
• Inferring black hole spins and probing accretion/ejection flows in AGNs with the Athena X-ray Integral Field Unit
• On Constraining the Growth History of Massive Black Holes via Their Distribution on the Spin-Mass Plane
• Alignments Of Black Holes With Their Warped Accretion Disks And Episodic Lifetimes Of Active Galactic Nuclei
• Effect of accreting tidally disrupted stars on the spin evolution of $\sim 10^6{M}_{\odot }$ black holes

Cited by in corpus (2)

• Effects of spin on constraining the seeds and growth of $\gtrsim 10^9{M}_{\odot }$ supermassive black holes in $z>6.5$ Quasars
• Probing the Growth of Massive Black Holes with Black Hole-Host Galaxy Spin Correlations