A model independent comparison of supernova and strong lensing cosmography: implications for the Hubble constant tension

Abstract

We use supernovae measurements, calibrated by the local determination of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by SH0ES, to interpolate the distance-redshift relation using Gaussian process regression. We then predict, independent of the cosmological model, the distances that are measured with strong lensing time delays. We find excellent agreement between these predictions and the measurements. The agreement holds when we consider only the redshift dependence of the distance-redshift relation, independent of the value of $H_0$. Our results disfavor the possibility that lens mass modeling contributes a 10\% bias or uncertainty in the strong lensing analysis, as suggested recently in the literature. In general our analysis strengthens the case that residual systematic errors in both measurements are below the level of the current discrepancy with the CMB determination of $H_0$, and supports the possibility of new physical phenomena on cosmological scales. With additional data our methodology can provide more stringent tests of unaccounted for systematics in the determinations of the distance-redshift relation in the late universe.

13 pages, 11 figures, corrected typos and added references

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• TDCOSMO III: Dark matter substructure meets dark energy -- the effects of (sub)halos on strong-lensing measurements of $H_0$
• Reconstruction of the dark sectors' interaction: A model-independent inference and forecast from GW standard sirens
• Strong lens modelling: comparing and combining Bayesian neural networks and parametric profile fitting
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• Multi-tasking the growth of cosmological structures
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• An empirical consistent redshift bias: A possible direct reproducible observation of Zwicky's TL theory
• A Hubble Constant Determination Through Quasar Time Delays and Type Ia Supernovae
• A simple direct empirical observation of systematic bias of the redshift as a distance indicator
• A Joint Analysis of Strong Lensing and Type Ia Supernovae to Determine the Hubble Constant