Pulsar glitch activity as a state-dependent Poisson process: parameter estimation and epoch prediction

Abstract

Rotational glitches in some rotation-powered pulsars display power-law size and exponential waiting time distributions. These statistics are consistent with a state-dependent Poisson process, where the glitch rate is an increasing function of a global stress variable (e.g. crust-superfluid angular velocity lag), diverges at a threshold stress, increases smoothly while the star spins down, and decreases step-wise at each glitch. A minimal, seven-parameter, maximum likelihood model is calculated for PSR J1740-3015, PSR J0534+2200, and PSR J0631+1036, the three objects with the largest samples whose glitch activity is Poisson-like. The estimated parameters have theoretically reasonable values and contain useful information about the glitch microphysics. It is shown that the maximum likelihood, state-dependent Poisson model is a marginally (23-27 per cent) better post factum "predictor" of historical glitch epochs than a homogeneous Poisson process for PSR J1740-3015 and PSR J0631+1036 and a comparable predictor for PSR J0534+2200. Monte Carlo simulations imply that > 50 glitches are needed to test reliably whether one model outperforms the other. It is predicted that the next glitch will occur at Modified Julian Date (MJD) 57784 +/- 256.8, 60713 +/- 1935, and 57406 +/- 1444 for the above three objects respectively. The analysis does not apply to quasiperiodic glitchers like PSR J0537-6910 and PSR J0835-4510, which are not described accurately by the state-dependent Poisson model in its original form.

37 pages, 11 figures; accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

References in corpus (37)

• MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics
• Tempo2, a new pulsar timing package. II: The timing model and precision estimates
• A study of 315 glitches in the rotation of 102 pulsars
• Pulsar Constraints on Neutron Star Structure and Equation of State
• Models of Pulsar Glitches
• Bayesian coherent analysis of in-spiral gravitational wave signals with a detector network
• Pulsar glitches: The crust is not enough
• Crustal Entrainment and Pulsar Glitches
• Detection of 107 glitches in 36 southern pulsars
• Avalanche dynamics of radio pulsar glitches
• Predicting the Starquakes in PSR J0537-6910
• Breaking stress of neutron star crust
• Pulsar Glitches: The Crust may be Enough
• Observations of a Series of Six Recent Glitches in the Crab Pulsar
• Gross-Pitaevskii model of pulsar glitches
• The Einstein@Home Gamma-ray Pulsar Survey. I. Search Methods, Sensitivity and Discovery of New Young Gamma-ray Pulsars
• Fast Radio Transient searches with UTMOST at 843 MHz
• 30 Glitches in slow pulsars
• The largest glitch observed in the Crab pulsar
• 29 Glitches Detected at Urumqi Observatory
• Knock-on processes in superfluid vortex avalanches and pulsar glitch statistics
• Neutron star glitches have a substantial minimum size
• Statistical characterization of pulsar glitches and their potential impact on searches for continuous gravitational waves
• Glitch time series and size distributions in eight prolific pulsars
• Nonlinear interglitch dynamics, the braking index of the Vela pulsar and the time to the next glitch
• Size-waiting-time correlations in pulsar glitches
• The glitches and rotational history of the highly energetic young pulsar PSR J0537$-$6910
• Stability of interlinked neutron vortex and proton flux tube arrays in a neutron star. II. Far-from-equilibrium dynamics
• The Energetics of a Flaring Solar Active Region, and Observed Flare Statistics
• Characterising the rotational irregularities of the Vela pulsar from 21 yr of phase-coherent timing
• Nonparametric estimation of the size and waiting time distributions of pulsar glitches
• Minimum Glitch of the Crab Pulsar and the Crustquake as a Trigger Mechanism
• Generating quasiperiodic pulsar glitches using a state-dependent Poisson process
• Autocorrelations in pulsar glitch waiting times and sizes
• Nature of cyclical changes in the timing residuals from the pulsar B1642-03
• On the detection probability of neutron star glitches
• Temporal clustering of rotational glitches in the Crab pulsar

Cited by in corpus (6)

• Return of the Big Glitcher: NICER timing and glitches of PSR J0537-6910
• An updated glitch rate law inferred from radio pulsars
• Neutron star crust in Voigt approximation: general symmetry of the stress-strain tensor and an universal estimate for the effective shear modulus
• Measuring the vortex-nucleus pinning force from pulsar glitch rates
• Long-term statistics of pulsar glitches due to history-dependent avalanches
• A statistical search for a uniform trigger threshold in solar flares from individual active regions